Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

Appendix C Economic analysis – assumptions and methodology The probabilities obtained from the orbital population model detailed in Appendix B were used in combination with Novaspace’s proprietary satellite database to determine the economic value of the forecast orbital collisions through a deterministic valuation. When combining the data for the economic valuation, several assumptions were made: 1 The value of the infrastructure is derived from Novaspace’s proprietary database, which provides historical, current and forecast data on the total number of satellites launched and to be launched. For each of these satellites, the valuation assigns a manufacturing cost and a launch cost, which together form the value of the infrastructure in any given year within the time frame of interest. 2 A discount rate of 4% is applied to the manufacturing and launch value of the satellites over the years of their lifespan, with the exception of large constellations, to which a discount rate of 6% is applied. The five large constellations are: Starlink, Amazon Leo, Starshield, Guowang and Qianfan. Large LEO constellations are designed for fast replacement cycles (e.g. five to seven years) to keep performance and spectrum efficiency high. That implies faster economic depreciation and higher obsolescence risk than, say, a 12–15-year GEO satellite. A higher discount rate is a reasonable shorthand for that accelerated economic ageing. 3 The cost of a risk-reduction manoeuvre is determined according to a 2023 NASA study,27 differentiated according to the operator type (commercial, government, academic or defence). 4 The cost of a risk-reduction manoeuvre for constellations is considered to be zero, as this cost is assumed to be absorbed in the infrastructure cost of the asset. This is supported by the same NASA study, which found that commercial operators have largely automated their analysis and response to debris interactions. 5The threshold for a manoeuvre is assumed to be 1.00E-04 throughout the decade. 6 The value of services is derived from Novaspace’s proprietary database, which provides yearly estimates of the total service revenues generated by satellites across different applications. For this analysis, the relevant applications are Earth observation, telecommunications, satellite navigation, space security and space logistics. To estimate the costs associated with satellite anomalies, the valuation incorporates a set of discounting assumptions that consider the severity and operational impact of those events. These assumptions are different for infrastructure-related and service-related consequences, accounting for the likelihood of benign, moderate and severe anomalies as well as the structural resilience offered by satellite constellations in LEO. The following reports the discounting rationale applied to each category. For infrastructure: –50% of the expected value is heavily discounted to represent that most anomaly events are benign, with only 35% of its value retained in the decadal sum. –Of the remaining 50%, 30% is moderately discounted, with 65% of its value retained. This indicates that some anomaly events may temporarily disrupt satellite operations before recovery. –The final 20% is left undiscounted, meaning its full expected value is carried forward, representing the limited number of anomaly occurrences able to cause lasting damage, shortening a satellite’s lifespan or diminishing its functionality to provide services in a given period. Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 28