Executive summary Today’s population of orbital objects includes active satellites, derelict rocket bodies and inactive satellites, alongside millions of smaller debris fragments. With space infrastructure increasingly interwoven with economic growth and daily life, this growth is starting to affect more than ever the collision risk of existing missions, projections of overall debris fields, planned missions and, consequently, investments committed now and in the future. Since 2024, the collaboration between the World Economic Forum and the Centre for Space Futures has developed novel quantitative models to illustrate the physical and economic dimensions of the debris challenge. The combined analysis projections find that even with improved adherence to debris- mitigation guidelines, orbital stability will continue to deteriorate between 2025 and 2040, leading to increasing operational costs for space operators. A model showing the population of orbital debris, developed in collaboration with the Saudi Space Agency and LeoLabs, identifies dense debris clusters forming at altitudes of around 775 km, 840 km and 1,000 km, with the highest-risk band facing up to a 29% probability of a major collision by 2032. Even without a major event, debris in these bands poses an immediate threat as smaller collisions and rocket-body explosions accumulate at an expected rate of 40–50 new catalogued fragments each year. In order to understand the economic implications of these trends, the debris model formed the basis for an economic valuation analysis developed in collaboration with Novaspace. This valuation estimates cumulative losses of between $25.8 billion and $42.3 billion over the next decade under a business-as-usual scenario, assuming no major, cascading collisions. Most projected losses result from service disruptions, avoidance manoeuvres and premature asset degradation, which reduce mission revenues and longevity. Together, these effects represent a sustained drag on the economic efficiency and profitability of the space sector as well as industries heavily reliant on space data, emphasizing the urgency of collective mitigation. This report underscores that inconsistent implementation of priority actions – such as universal adoption of the five-year post-mission disposal rule, consistent passivation of spacecraft (for example, removing or neutralizing stored energy sources to prevent explosions) at end-of-life and targeted removal of high-risk derelict objects – limits mitigation of space debris risks. Achieving these objectives will require stronger international coordination across regulatory, financial and governance domains. Neutral conveners play an important role in facilitating transparency, policy alignment and exchange of methodologies among governments, industry and multilateral institutions. By monitoring implementation outcomes and shared lessons learned with the global space community, the Centre aims to inspire transparency, identify effective approaches and accelerate the adoption of responsible orbital practices.The number of objects in orbit has surged over the past two decades, driven largely by the expansion of commercial space activity. Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 4

Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026