Abstract Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCMs) are a growing market-based mechanism to support decarbonization by creating carbon credits via carbon offsets. VCMs have many promising aspects, but they do not constitute direct emissions reduction. While VCMs create new market-based incentive structures for carbon abatement, their integrity is often critiqued as lackluster, untransparent, and poorly verified. Solving complex issues like climate change requires tran sforma tive systems-level change, not point solutions. Systems innovations are instrumental to enabling widespread change across complex systems. In complex systems, no path can be established in advance and relied upon with certainty. The carbon crisis and energy transition are wicked problems; they exist in dynamic, nonlinear environments where solutions don’t emerge from pre-established answers. Effective carbon offsetting requires a nuanced understandin g o f complexity, with many possible solutions and uncertain outcomes. Addressing such complex challenges necessitates integrating climate foresight - moving from silos to systems and rethinking structures that incentivize outcomes. For a successful energy transition, businesses and investors must consider multiple stakeholders and complex ecosystem interactions. This article uses Brazilian climate-tech startup Lux Carbon Standard (LuxCS) as a case study to evaluate t he role of anticipatory governance - a growing futures concept - in transforming VCMs.LuxCS is using systems innovations within the Brazilian VCM ecosystem, including blockchain,satellite monitoring, and innovative biodiversity calculation methods, to verify the integrity of carbon credits. Applying climate foresight and futures intelligence, they’re building a democratized, transparent, and effective carbon credit market, initially adapted to Br azil and its biomes. LuxCS is driving systemic change in VCMs, as their standards can be scaled globally. However, while the opportunities are great, we also explore foresight exercises that reveal how LuxCS’ strategy could result in perverse outcomes for VCMs and the energy transition as a whole. Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 6 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025

Climate Foresight 2025