Foresight Case Study Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets Introduction The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is a global, radical transformation that will see major shifts in societal values, business models, and public perception (Christensen et al. 2021). Organizations face unprecedented scrutiny regarding the effectiveness of their climate actions. Organizations which are seen to deliver sustainable futures are inc reasingly r eaping benefits, while those which neglect the environment will be exposed to value erosion,stakeholder scrutiny, shareholder criticism, and litigation (Alsayegh et al. 2022; Gomez-Bezares et al. 2016). An essential feature of effective governance is ensuring sustainable futures, whichare futures that can be maintained for the long-term without compromising the systems they’re within, or jeopardizing the needs of future generations (Slaughter 202 0). Pr ioritizing sustainable futures requires robust long-term thinking within organizations, and a strong grasp of futures intelligence (decision-making informed by anticipatory thinking and future-related insights) and climate foresight (understanding, anticipating, measuring, disclosing, and monitoring climate-related risk to support resilient climate-aligned decisions). However, leadership pathologies often stifle proper long-term, systemic thinking, s tymieing futures intelligence and climate foresight (Boin 2014; Jacobs 2011). Boin (2014) and Cairney (2012a) identify how path dependence, risk aversion, and top-down management modelstraditionally maintain a business-as-usual mentality (also see McConnell and ‘t Hart 2019; Kingdon 2011). The carbon crisis and energy transition are wicked problems; they exist in dynamic, nonlinear environments where solutions don’t emerge from pre-established a nswers. Ad dressing them Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 7 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025

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