Defossilizing Industry Scaling-up CCU 2025

Technology pathwayFuels and chemicals Building materialsPure-carbon materialsConversion technology maturity2Theoretical market opportunity (2040)1Cost of final product with carbon oxide conversion, relative to conventional, non-CCU production3 2 to 2.5x 1.2 to 1.5xMethane MethanolCO2 catalysisMethanation CO2 electrolysisReverse water gas shift Plant co-feed N/A (used as intermediate) Ethanol Gas fermentation 1.0 to 1.4x CO2-treated aggregates Carbonate mineralization 1.5 to 1.7x CO2-cured concrete CO2-injection N/ACarbon nanotubesMolten salt electrolysis N/AElectrochemical materials incl. graphiteMolten salt electrolysis N/A Carbon black1.5 to over 2.5x OlefinsCO2 catalysis CO2 electrolysisAlcohol- to-olefins 1.5 to over 2.5x FuelsCO2 catalysis CO2 electrolysisFischer-Tropsch Alcohol-to-fuel Molten salt electrolysisMethane pyrolysisFIGURE 5 Summary of emerging CCU pathways, maturity and cost comparison Notes: 1. Based on expectations of total target market size in 2040 (not specific to CCU). Quarter segments reflect 1-4 scale. 1 = low growth potential; 2 = mid/large-scale growth potential, but with contingencies or limitations; 3 = large-scale growth potential in 100’s Mtpa; 4 = widespread, gigatonne-scale opportunity. 2. 1 = lab scale; 2 = small pilot scale; 3 = industrial-scale demonstration; 4 = implementable at commercial scale today. 3. Cost multiples assume use of cheap feedstocks ($2/kg for H2, $100/tonne for CO2) to highlight relative costs of conversion technologies. Source: Wood Mackenzie Lens Carbon. the case of CO2-treated aggregates specifically, will be limited by the availability of waste material feedstocks. CO2-treated building materials may also represent long-duration carbon sinks, creating opportunities to charge product premiums and sell removals credits if biogenic or atmospheric CO2 is sequestered.31,32,33 However, final life-cycle emissions are highly impacted by transportation and processing emissions, particularly if freshly mined materials are used in place of waste materials.34Pure-carbon materials Innovative start-ups are developing technologies for the conversion of CO2 into carbon-based materials such as carbon nanotubes and graphite. In the case of graphite, current demand sits at 6 Mtpa increasing to ~8.6 Mtpa by 2040, driven by growth in the batteries market.35 Moreover, geostrategic imperatives could accelerate regional production development as the US and European Union (EU) prioritize supply chain diversification. Defossilizing Industry: Considerations for Scaling-up Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways 11