1.3 Investment needs to meet 2030 demand To estimate the total investment requirements to meet the envisaged 2030 SAF demand, three different scenarios have been modelled. The difference in scenario is driven by their pathway mixes: –Scenario 1: HEFA remains the dominant pathway at 99%, assuming feedstocks allow this scale, with some small trials of AtJ, similar to today’s existing pathway mix. –Scenario 2: Alternative pathways are showing promising results, slowly taking away some share of HEFA, similar to the pathway mix of projects that recently passed FID. –Scenario 3: Advanced pathways beyond HEFA are scaling-up more quickly, especially with AtJ and PtL gaining more significant market share, each representing ~15% of the pathway mix. Multiplying the total required capacity of 5.8 Mt (Figure 3) with average investment costs (Figure 5), the total estimated CapEx commitment required to fulfil demand for SAF by 2030 ranges between $19 billion and $45 billion. The total estimated CapEx commitment required to fulfil demand for SAF by 2030 ranges between $19 billion and $45 billion. Overview of total estimated CapEx by scenario TABLE 1 Scenario 1 % mix SAF capacity (Mt) Yield (max SAF) Plant capacity (Mt) Cost/tonne ($) Cost ($ billion) HEFA 99% 5.75 48% 12.11 $1,500 $18 AtJ 1% 0.06 46% 0.13 $4,300 $0.6 G-FT 0% – 60% – $7,200 – PtL 0% – 60% – $12,700 – Total $18.6 Scenario 2 % mix SAF capacity (Mt) Yield (max SAF) Plant capacity (Mt) Cost/tonne ($) Cost ($ billion) HEFA 81% 4.73 48% 9.96 $1,500 $14.8 AtJ 3% 0.20 46% 0.43 $4,300 $1.8 G-FT 6% 0.34 60% 0.57 $7,200 $4.0 PtL 9% 0.54 60% 0.90 $12,700 $11.5 Total $32.2 Scenario 3 % mix SAF capacity (Mt) Yield (max SAF) Plant capacity (Mt) Cost/tonne ($) Cost ($ billion) HEFA 60% 3.49 48% 7.34 $1,500 $10.9 AtJ 15% 0.87 46% 1.88 $4,300 $8.1 G-FT 10% 0.58 60% 0.97 $7,200 $6.9 PtL 15% 0.87 60% 1.45 $12,700 $18.5 Total $44.5 Sources: Kearney analysis based on market engagement, S&P Global data. 13 Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2025