According to the Chief Economists Survey (2024), the following factors are important contributors to current levels of global economic fragmentation – in which the geopolitical climate serves as a significant factor (Figure 11). These structural shifts are reshaping energy markets, influencing investment decisions and redefining the role of key energy sources for the future. Energy efficiency – the world’s first fuel: Beyond the benefit of reducing the need for additional supply, energy efficiency is the most cost-effective lever to boost security, cut emissions and lower costs. Smart grids, AI analytics and demand response programmes are optimizing energy use, while behavioural incentives can drive more conscious consumption – supporting a more resilient, low-carbon system. Natural gas – still a key transitional asset: Despite climate scrutiny, natural gas remains central to today’s energy mix. It supports power system stability, complements variable renewables and serves key industrial applications, including hydrogen production and e-fuels. When paired with carbon capture, it offers a pragmatic path towards near-term security and decarbonization – particularly in regions with established infrastructure. LNG – from transition fuel to destination fuel: Long seen as a “bridge fuel”, LNG is becoming a more permanent feature in the global energy mix. Policy support, technological innovation (e.g. efficiency gains, CCUS) and supply diversification have redefined its role. Demand for LNG surged in 2024-2025,72 especially in Asia and Europe, as countries sought alternatives to Russian pipeline gas. The Asia-Pacific region remained the largest LNG importer, with China and India securing long-term contracts. The US and Qatar expanded export capacity, and, while global supply growth slowed to 2% in 2024, new projects are set to drive a rebound to nearly 6% in 2025.73 To what extent do you think the following factors are important contributors to current levels of global economic fragmentation? Very unimportant Unimportant Neither important nor unimportant Important Very importantShare of respondents (%)Geopolitical rivalries Domestic policy choices Global economic shifts Multilateral institutional decline Demographic changes33 3 6 21 367 27 61 36 61 12 12 630 15 39 18 45 30Chief Economists Survey: global economic fragmentation factors FIGURE 11 Source: World Economic Forum. (2025). Chief Economists Outlook: January 2025. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 40