Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025

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The steady comeback of nuclear: Nuclear energy is regaining momentum, led by traditional designs and interest in SMRs, which offer safer, scalable and low-carbon baseload power. Their flexibility makes them an option for coal phase-outs and complements LNG in delivering stable, dispatchable energy. Global investment is rising, especially in China, which is set to surpass the US and Europe in nuclear capacity by 2030. While nuclear power today produces just under 10% of global electricity supply, capacities are increasing, with the majority of projects under construction in China.74  Shift to next-generation fuel technologies: In many fossil-fuel-dominated sectors, e.g. the shipping industry, efforts to reduce emissions have led to international deals such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreement.75 Investment by shipping companies in next-generation fuel technologies, such as green ammonia, is needed (rather than agreements that encourage a shift to LNG, which, although lower-carbon than conventional shipping fuel, still produces substantial emissions). In the aviation sector, efforts to scale sustainable aviation fuels are under way. Although the world needs a range of cleaner fuels to scale, there are hurdles associated with costs, demand and policy that still need to be overcome. Clean energy technologies – driving low-carbon growth, led by renewable power: Clean energy investments are outpacing fossil fuels,76 with the power sector leading through rapid deployment of solar, wind and smart grids. As decarbonization efforts expand to harder-to-abate sectors, technologies like CCUS are gaining traction. Over 100 projects77 are ongoing and under construction globally, supported by policy incentives and growing R&D. The success of clean technologies, however, depends on resilient supply chains and reliable access to critical resources – making supply chain security increasingly pivotal. Energy storage solutions as the backbone of renewable integration: To manage renewable intermittency, energy storage is essential for grid stability and supply-demand balance. Global capacity is set to surpass 2 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030, with annual installations increasing at an average rate of 21%.78 China is projected to lead with a 43%79 share, followed by the US (14%), Europe and India.80 Battery systems, hydrogen and pumped hydro are among the key technologies driving flexibility in low-carbon energy systems. Digital forces in energy – scaling intelligence, managing demand: AI is reshaping energy systems, offering efficiency gains but also driving up electricity and resource demand. Generative AI consumes 33 times more energy than traditional software,81 and data centres could drive 10% of global power demand growth by 2030 (and up to 30% in hubs like Ireland).82 They already account for 1% of global energy- related emissions and could use 67% of global copper by 2030.83 While AI may help cut 5-10% of emissions,84 its rising power needs risk diverting renewables from other clean uses. Quantum computing may offer yet another means of advancing innovation through its lower energy consumption. Yet, managing AI’s footprint and maximizing its use for energy system efficiency are critical to ensuring that digitalization continues to act as a driver – not a drag – in the energy transition. Furthermore, electrification is emerging as a defining force in energy system transformation. It is driven not only by climate ambition but also by structural demand shifts – from industrial processes and transport to AI, cooling and digital services. Renewables, often the lowest-cost generation option, are expanding rapidly as a result. Yet, electrification also increases the capital intensity and complexity of energy systems, necessitating major investments in grids and infrastructure, and heightening risks related to cybersecurity and system stability. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 41
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