Executive summary The rapid commercialization of emerging technologies is reshaping workflows, business models and talent pipelines. As artificial intelligence (AI) shifts from experimentation to integration, the pace and trajectory of its advancement deepen the uncertainty about its implications on businesses, workers and the global economy. The views of business executives on the impact of AI vary too: globally, about 54% expect AI to displace existing jobs, and 24% said AI will create new jobs. Nearly 45% also cited an increase in profit margins as a likely impact of AI, and only 12% expect it to lead to higher wages. The future of workplaces and value chains will not be defined by the technologies alone. Human capital strategies and investments prioritized today will determine how well societies and individual businesses can adapt to – and lead in – the new economy. Turning uncertainty into foresight The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series uses scenario analysis and cross-industry dialogue to help decision- makers navigate global economic developments and their implications for strategy and investment decisions. This white paper consolidates the views and insights from the members of the Forum’s Chief Strategy Officers Community and other experts across the Forum’s Industry Communities and Global Foresight Network. This second edition in the series explores how AI advancements and talent trends, and their potential trajectories until 2030, could shape the future of jobs, with varying implications for corporate strategies and investment decisions. Four scenarios for the future of jobs in 2030 Taken together, AI advancement and talent development vectors generate the following four scenarios for the future of jobs in 2030.1 Supercharged Progress: Exponential AI breakthroughs reshape industries, business models and workflows. Productivity soars and innovation flourishes. Widespread AI readiness allows people to harness the “agentic leap”, adapt to AI-centric economies and partially contain displacement. Many jobs have disappeared, but new occupations emerge and scale fast, in part with humans directing portfolios of capable machines and becoming agent orchestrators. Social safety nets, ethics and governance frameworks struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change. 2 The Age of Displacement: Exponential AI advancement outpaces the capacity of the workforce to adapt. Businesses race to automate as a stopgap, displacing workers faster than education and reskilling systems can respond. Agentic AI takes over key processes, creating a productivity upsurge, but also new risks. Economies race ahead technologically but fracture socially: unemployment spikes, consumer confidence erodes and governments face mounting societal risks and instability. 3 Co-Pilot Economy: Gradual AI progress and availability of AI-ready skillsets shift the focus towards augmentation rather than mass automation. The AI hype of the 2020s has given way to pragmatic integration: most industries see incremental transformation as human–AI teams reshape value chains. Countries and businesses that invested early in training, mobility, digital infrastructure and AI governance have created conditions to absorb and advance emerging technologies. 4 Stalled Progress: Steady AI progress meets a workforce lacking critical skills. Productivity growth is patchy, and businesses lean on automation to backfill scarce talent. Gains concentrate within businesses and geographies with AI expertise, while others face eroding competitiveness. Displacement hits primarily routine roles, while the value of skilled trades and manual occupations increases. The hope of AI-enabled prosperity fades into frustration, as adoption gaps fuel inequality, create a bifurcated economy and limit growth.Foresight provides a lens to explore critical uncertainties and shape strategies to navigate and harness transformative shifts. Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy: AI and Talent in 2030 3

Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy AI and Talent in 2030 2025