Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)

1 Appendix C: Ashland Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections and Target Setting Methodology Development of strategies and targets in the Ashland Climate and Energy Action Plan involved completion of the following analyses:  Business -as-usual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections to 2050.  Quantification of emission reduction scenarios associated with select GHG -reducing strategies. This document details the methodologies employed to complete these analyses, as well as a brief discussion of the GHG emissi on reduction target -setting process for the Climate and Energy Action Plan . Business -as-Usual Projections The business -as-usual scenario assessed what Ashland’s emissions would look like if the city were to take no additional actions beyond current practic es. This analysis, built from the existing 2015 community greenhouse gas inventory1, took into account anticipated changes that would affect Ashland’s emissions, such as population changes and changes in federal or state policies. Table 1 below details t hese anticipated changes. Table 1. Assumptions for Ashland’s business -as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Source By 2030 By 2050 Population increase Population increase 0.5% annually Policies Renewable Energy Standards – Policies to increase renewable energy in states in the region, including WA and OR . 13.8% 23.8% Federal CAFE Standard – Policy to increase the average fuel economy of cars and light trucks in the US .2 35.5 MPG 54.5 MPG Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program – Policy to reduce the average carbon intensity of Oregon’s transportation fuels by 10 percent over a 10 - year period starting in 2016 .3 10% reduction in transportation fuel carbon 1 Good Company, “City of Ashland Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2011 – 2015),” February 2016. 2 The White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Obama Administration Finalizes Historic 54.5 MPG Fuel Efficiency Standards,” August 28, 2012, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the -press -office/2012/08/28/obama - administration -finalizes -historic -545-mpg -fuel-efficien cy-standard . 3 Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, “Air Quality: Oregon Clean Fuels Program,” http://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/cleanFuel .