access to critical raw materials – such as lithium, rare earths and others – risks slowing the pace of decarbonization. –Domestic policies: Domestic politics continue to be highly polarized around the future of globalization and technology, the latter’s impact on privacy, labour markets and ethics, the need to address technology-driven and trade-driven inequalities, and cultural divergences. Radical movements continue to be on the rise, and technology-enabled misinformation and disinformation continue to erode trust in institutions and governance more broadly. Economies that have anticipated and proactively managed these risks have preserved societal trust and local opportunities. Business environment: The dual trend of geopolitical stabilization and widening technology adoption has partially curbed business uncertainty. This has allowed businesses to shift from crisis response strategies towards longer investment and growth horizons. Technology has become deeply embedded across corporate strategies and increased the number of new entrants across the industries. Business competitiveness is increasingly defined by digital infrastructure, pace of technology adoption, data fluency and talent attractiveness. The intense focus on understanding geopolitical disruption in the mid-2020s has become a more integrated part of contextual awareness among managers and boards. Geopolitical stability, slow and concentrated technological adoptionGeopolitical normalization has lowered risk premiums and reduced price shocks, but growth remains stagnant as technology fails to deliver expected economic impacts. Adoption of frontier technologies has been limited to a few sectors and industry leaders across the world and has not had a significant impact on wages and jobs. Geopolitical risk index Baseline: 149.1 (Iacoviello, M. et al., 2025 average) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 3.2% (International Monetary Fund, 2025) Supply chain pressure index Baseline: -0.01 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2025 average) US effective average tariff rate, % Baseline: 17% (Yale University The Budget Lab, 2025) Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio Baseline: 16.8 (International Labour Organization, 2025) Energy price index, absolute monthly % change Baseline: 3.7% (based on World Bank, 2025) Trust in media, % of population Baseline: 52% (Edelman, 2025)Scenario 2: Cautious Stability Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. In this scenario, geopolitical stability and slow technology adoption have delivered a more predictable, albeit less dynamic, global order. The stabilization of US–China tensions and easing of major conflicts have lowered risk premiums and prevented further escalation of trade barriers, but have failed to revitalize the global economy. Slower technological adoption has eased strategic competition around technology and innovation between major blocs. The adoption of frontier technologies such as generative AI, quantum computing and robotics has been limited to a few sectors and industry leaders globally, as most businesses have faced skills gaps, weak infrastructure and low business readiness. A limited payoff from broader AI commercialization has triggered an AI bubble burst that deflated AI stock valuations and dampened investor appetite by the end of the decade. Innovation has remained fragmented, with global R&D spending stagnating below $3 trillion annually.5 –Macroeconomic conditions: Global GDP growth is stagnant by historical terms, ranging around 2–3% and falling short of early-decade projections.6 The promise of productivity gains and digital leapfrogging has failed to materialize at scale. Inflation has stabilized, but markets have been volatile as tech valuations have plummeted and capital expenditure (CapEx) investments have not yielded expected returns, weighing on corporate balance sheets. –Trade and investment: Global trade and investment flows have returned to a positive growth trajectory following the disruptions of the mid-2020s, as supply chains are reorganizing around emerging geoeconomic faultlines. Flows of data and digital services, as well as exports Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 10

Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025