Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

of breakthrough new products, grow at a slower rate. Advanced and emerging countries manufacturing medium-technology products experience a short economic revival, while others struggle to adapt to the reconfiguration of supply chains brought about by a new global trade landscape. –Labour markets: Job displacement pressures have been lower than feared due to the lack of mass automation. However, labour markets remain bifurcated, with high-skilled, high-wage workers concentrated in a few global hubs that benefit from global economies of scale and technological adoption. Limited technology adoption has slowed the reallocation of the workforce towards more dynamic, innovation- intensive parts of the economy, leading to lower wage growth overall. –Energy outlook: Greater geopolitical stability has eased volatility in energy and commodity markets, but the global energy system has failed to transform significantly. On one side, investments in new energy generation technologies – such as small modular reactors – have plateaued, together with the slowdown in the development of AI and data centres. On the other, the rollout of promising green technologies has also stalled, with the share of renewables staying below 50%. –Domestic policies: As new geoeconomic blocs emerge, domestic political environments stabilize too. Societal frustrations around the lack of economic opportunities and persistent digital divides remain in most countries. As frontier technologies did not find widespread application in the economy, governments scale down their efforts towards their development and rollout. Business environment: The global business environment has become more predictable, and barriers to trade have stabilized at levels above those of the early 2020s. Technology adoption has remained limited to a few superstar companies with lower-than-anticipated disruptions across most industries. Many businesses absorb the impact of CapEx investments in technologies that have not yielded expected returns and have limited space on their balance sheets. Governments decrease their engagement in the economy, leaving renewed space to private sector initiative in the hope of spurring faster economic growth. Geopolitical volatility, fast and widespread technological adoptionWidespread technology adoption and geopolitical volatility have created a world where technological opportunities are vast, but trust, coordination and stability are in short supply. Businesses use digitalization to offset the costs of geopolitical disruptions, creating both new opportunities and material risks. Geopolitical risk index Baseline: 149.1 (Iacoviello, M. et al., 2025 average) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 3.2% (International Monetary Fund, 2025) Supply chain pressure index Baseline: -0.01 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2025 average) US effective average tariff rate, % Baseline: 17% (Yale University The Budget Lab, 2025) Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio Baseline: 16.8 (International Labour Organization, 2025) Energy price index, absolute monthly % change Baseline: 3.7% (based on The World Bank, 2025) Trust in media, % of population Baseline: 52% (Edelman, 2025) Scenario 3: Tech-based Survival Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. In this scenario, heightened geopolitical volatility, coupled with wider technology adoption within each competing geopolitical bloc, have created a fast- paced, high-risk and opportunity-rich environment for businesses. Companies adapt to a world where technological opportunities are vast, but decisions about which geographies to operate in are highly consequential. Trust, geoeconomic coordination and stability are in short supply.Trade wars, resource competition, and escalating conflicts have deepened fragmentation by the late 2020s, with governments racing to protect strategic technologies and supply chains. Nonetheless, within countries and alliances, technology diffusion has accelerated – either supported by government policies, or finding its own path given lax and lagging regulation. Falling marginal costs and strategic technology sharing among close partners Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 11