Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

have enabled wider technology adoption across a large portion of the economy. Globally, the technology race has intensified, splitting the world into semi-integrated digital hubs with competing regulations, technology controls and inward-focused talent pipelines. Cybersecurity risks have become acute amid growing volatility and mistrust. –Macroeconomic conditions: Global GDP growth is brittle. Technology-enabled dynamism has spurred economic activity, but the adversarial global order has stifled wider growth spillovers. Geopolitical volatility has also buoyed inflationary pressures and led governments to continue spending heavily – especially on defence and technology development – in turn deepening fiscal sustainability concerns. –Trade and investments: Global trade and FDI flows have fragmented further, with trade and investment barriers growing deeper and broader compared to the mid-2020s and governments implementing additional measures to protect and incentivize domestic industries and technologies and ensure exclusive access to critical raw materials. Decision-makers have responded to uncertainty, tariffs and investment controls by retrenching within geopolitical and regional blocs, localizing and investing in modular and duplicative supply chains. –Labour markets: The acceleration of technology adoption within countries and regional blocs has generated upheaval across labour markets. Businesses both large and small have prioritized automation to curb costs, with the share of business tasks performed by technology spiking above 22% as recorded in the mid-2020s.7 Countries that managed to capture shifting value chains may face skills mismatches and the need to transition workers displaced by automation. International labour mobility remains constrained with growing unemployment and decreasing investments in developing countries. –Energy outlook: Energy prices have surged globally. Resource nationalism and security imperatives have pushed many governments to reduce energy dependency and weaponize access to critical raw materials. Wider access to green technologies within trading blocs was able to only partially offset the impact of rising electricity demand driven by AI deployment, contributing to price volatility and energy insecurity risks. –Domestic policies: The pressures of geopolitical volatility and rapid technology diffusion – including the spread of mis- and disinformation – have amplified domestic divides, political tensions and radicalization of governments. Economies that have successfully invested in security, resilient digital and talent ecosystems, local markets and social safety nets are better positioned to cushion the impact of volatility and technological disruptions. Business environment: Business strategies have become highly focused on security and resilience. Many have digitalized and reconfigured supply chains, data flows and production models to operate in an environment of constant disruption and geopolitical uncertainty. Digitalization has allowed businesses to partially offset the costs of disruptions, particularly in asset-light sectors or those with strong potential to expand their services offering. However, this shift has not been evenly accessible, as large businesses with technical and financial capacities have surged ahead. In some countries, domestic businesses have benefited from localization of supply chains, but also face growing domestic competition. Multinational companies have shifted to regionally adaptive operating models, while doubling down on scalable AI, virtual R&D labs and talent ecosystems. Firms with strong geopolitical functions, access to good digital infrastructure, agile governance and financial buffers have leveraged uncertainty to gain competitive advantage. 12 Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030