Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

Geopolitical volatility, slow and concentrated technological adoptionAs geopolitical volatility continues to rise, countries have turned isolationist and are limiting trade to their closest allies, while fading technology hype creates room for disillusionment. Asset prices slump and growth rates stall or turn negative. Domestically, labour markets become less polarized as businesses look to reshore jobs and technology, but face significant talent shortages. Geopolitical risk index Baseline: 149.1 (Iacoviello, M. et al., 2025 average) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 3.2% (International Monetary Fund, 2025) Supply chain pressure index Baseline: -0.01 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2025 average) US effective average tariff rate, % Baseline: 17% (Yale University The Budget Lab, 2025) Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio Baseline: 16.8 (International Labour Organization, 2025) Energy price index, absolute monthly % change Baseline: 3.7% (based on World Bank, 2025) Trust in media, % of population Baseline: 52% (Edelman, 2025) Scenario 4: Geotech Spheres Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. In this scenario, geopolitical volatility and the strategic rivalry between the US and China have continued to escalate in the late 2020s, with repeated crises, proxy conflicts and cyber threats further fracturing global networks and the flows of goods, capital, knowledge, data and talent. Governments have weaponized access to key technologies, focusing on military applications and dual-use tools with limited guardrails. Among citizens, trust in technology has eroded, with technology diffusion stalling not only between antagonistic blocs but also within countries. Technological advancements have stayed concentrated at the frontier, failing to deliver significant economic benefits, while weak economic conditions and lack of access to know- how prevent many companies from investing in automation. Only a limited number of large companies have had the resources to invest in – and benefit from – AI and other leading-edge technologies; smaller companies worldwide have found themselves excluded. –Macroeconomic conditions: Macroeconomic volatility has reached historic highs as security and geopolitical concerns have trumped economic priorities. The risk of recession has increased, and inflation has reached double digits. Fiscal pressures have spiked globally due to higher risk premiums and growing spending needs. This has pushed global public debt well above $102 trillion,8 with debt servicing costs spiking across advanced and developing economies by 2030. –Trade and investment: The value of global trade and FDI flows has dropped from the mid- 2020s peak of $33.1 trillion9 and $1.5 trillion,10 respectively. The rest of the decade was characterized by a downward spiral of additional protectionist measures and discriminatory regulations implemented worldwide. Global supply chains have become shorter, more politized and rigid, as companies look for stability within geoeconomic blocs amid successive geopolitical crises. Yet, opportunities for cross-border investment dwindle as unstable alliances limit market opportunities and trust among partners. –Labour markets: Localization of supply chains, heavy public investments in defence and slower- than-expected adoption of AI create tight labour markets. Talent mobility is increasingly restricted by national security concerns and the tightening of borders, exacerbating skills shortages. Some workers can enjoy increased bargaining power, leading to upward pressure on wages and lower polarization of salaries. Yet, workers’ increased earnings are largely offset by higher inflation. –Energy outlook: Energy markets experience significant volatility, as recurrent crises lead to frequent price spikes above $100 per barrel for Brent crude oil, negatively impacting most industries. Baseline prices have also increased as resource nationalism has intensified, with many governments weaponizing access to energy and critical commodities. Supply chokepoints, high costs and the uneven diffusion of clean technologies have deepened the energy transition divide. Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 13