Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

–Domestic policies: International instability has fed into domestic polarization, with fears of open conflict leading to more radical and nationalistic governments in most countries. Increased spending on defence requires tough trade-offs with investment in health, education and other services, feeding into social grievances and ideological tensions. Domestic investments have created pockets of localized growth, in an overall context of stagnation. Strategic sectors – including manufacturing, mining and materials, defence, agriculture and pharmaceuticals – benefit disproportionately from talent and capital inflows, preferential regulatory environments, government protection and guarantees.Business environment: The global business environment has been squeezed by further geopolitical fragmentation and a progressive militarization of the economy, with technology adoption limited to a few key sectors – including defence – and selected public support to industries of relevance to national security. Larger businesses have been able to absorb higher costs and use market influence to adapt and gain from investments in proprietary technology and government support under national security and digital sovereignty policies. Smaller businesses have faced the pressure of external volatility and growing domestic competition, and, particularly those outside of strategic sectors, are increasingly constrained by eroding competitiveness, an inability to access capital, and widening technology and talent gaps. 14 Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030