Implications for businesses Understanding key risks and opportunities across the alternative scenarios is critical for designing strategies to prepare for – and shape – the future.3 These four potential futures are designed to support dialogue anchored in structured foresight. The stylized narratives presented in Chapter 2 offer a framework for analysing and stress-testing how the critical interplay between geopolitics and technology may transform the global economy and the business environment. This is a crucial step in understanding how businesses can design strategies to prepare for and harness change.Building on the analysis in previous chapters and a series of workshops and consultations with chief strategy officers and subject matter experts, this chapter explores key risks and opportunities associated with the four scenarios and the assumptions underpinning them, as well as strategy considerations that may help businesses position themselves within these futures. Scenario 1: Digitalized Order Top risks –Technology- and innovation-driven displacement across industries and geographies –Strategic complacency and underinvestment in resilience amid geopolitical calm and technology-driven growth –Overvaluation of AI-related stocks and digital assets, technology investments race –Job displacement, growing talent mismatch and shortages Top opportunities –AI-enabled competitiveness and productivity growth, and technological leapfrogging –Growth of platform business models, digital services hubs and hyper-personalized products –Global interoperability of regulations and standards lowers risk premiums and transaction costs Strategy considerations –Develop strategic openness and global strategies to leverage cross-border arbitrage, strengthen competitiveness and access new markets –Invest in scaling frontier innovation and development of digital-first strategies –Anticipate and adapt to the societal and economic implications of the rapid AI adoption, including investments in reskilling and upskilling of workers, development of infrastructure and governance 15 Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030

Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025