Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

Scenario 2: Cautious Stability Top risks –Growing inequality between businesses and countries at the technological frontier and laggards –Weak business dynamism, stagnant productivity and limited growth scale back investment flows and consumer confidence –Decline of returns on CapEx investments in AI, capital misallocation and poor R&D prioritization Top opportunities –Close structural gaps through incremental and localized innovation and technology adoption –Supply chain and innovation ecosystem shifts towards emerging economies and dynamic markets –Regulatory stability and harmonization of standards and data frameworks Strategy considerations –Maintain core investment strategies and explore additional opportunities in developing economies or priority markets –Strengthen internal R&D and innovation ecosystem, not just technology adoption –Invest in strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A), partnerships and value chains integration –Strengthen energy and infrastructure resilience Scenario 3: Tech-based Survival Top risks –Emergence of single jurisdiction chokepoints, strategic resource constraints and new zones of confrontation and influence –Hardwired cyberwarfare and technology misuse across industries and geographies –Heightened cost of capital, talent shortages and reputational exposure to misinformation –Politicized business environment and consumption choices, operational lock-in and dependency on strategic allies Top opportunities –Multi-sourcing and alliances for co-production and risks sharing –Substitution effects strengthen local and regional champions –Onshoring, re-shoring and nearshoring market openings from the geoeconomic restructuring of the global value chains –Technology-enabled risks management, predictive analytics and supply chain intelligence –Crisis-driven acceleration of innovation Strategy considerations –Strengthen industry cooperation and alignment of priorities with government strategy –Develop regional ecosystems and localization strategies –Invest in supply chain modularity, financial agility and multi-bloc regulatory compliance –Invest in complementary skillsets, cross-functional qualifications and local talent development Scenario 4: Geotech Spheres Top risks –Escalation of conflicts and weaponization of access to key technologies and supply chains –Emergence of innovation deserts across industries and geographies with limited access to technology –Entrenched macroeconomic volatility, high cost of capital, investor and consumer pessimism –Rising talent protectionism and weak talent pipelines –Government interventionism distorts markets and crowds out private investments Top opportunities –Protectionist policies and government subsidies drive growth in strategic, government-backed sectors –Strategic agility and operational base within non-aligned economies that maintain collaborative trade and investment relationships with a wide range of countries –Incremental innovation around production, substitution, circularity and efficient use of critical commodities Strategy considerations –Refocus on core corporate strengths, cut non-core activities and nearshore key value chains –Align strategy with national security and policy priorities –Strengthen partnerships with companies across different jurisdictions to reduce dependency on any single market –Invest in regional and domestic talent ecosystem, strengthen attractiveness and retention of talent Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 16