Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

2.2 Scenarios in-depth Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. Geopolitical stability, fast and widespread technological adoptionGeopolitical stabilization and rapid technological adoption have restored growth levels across sectors and geographies, but also created new challenges. Despite the recovery of trade and investment flows, domestic tensions remain acute in many countries as labour market disruptions and risks of technology misuse increase. Geopolitical risk index Baseline: 149.1 (Iacoviello, M. et al., 2025 average) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 3.2% (International Monetary Fund, 2025) Supply chain pressure index Baseline: -0.01 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2025 average) US effective average tariff rate, % Baseline: 17% (Yale University The Budget Lab, 2025) Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio Baseline: 16.8 (International Labour Organization, 2025) Energy price index, absolute monthly % change Baseline: 3.7% (based on World Bank, 2025) Trust in media, % of population Baseline: 52% (Edelman, 2025) Scenario 1: Digitalized Order In this scenario, geopolitical stabilization and fast technological adoption have enabled productivity and innovation spillovers at scale. A successful US–China “grand bargain” has prevented further escalation of trade wars and helped make the ongoing strategic rivalry more predictable. The contours of a new global order are starting to emerge, and global military spending has plateaued at around $2.7 trillion3 annually before 2030. The renewed stability and the rapid commercialization of emerging technologies – such as AI, advanced connectivity and others – have accelerated diffusion beyond frontier firms and economies. Falling adoption costs, digital interoperability, talent and infrastructure investments have modernized digital ecosystems. Global foreign direct investment (FDI) in the digital economy has surpassed $122 billion annually,4 with public-private partnerships shaping rules around data, safety and competition. Yet this new world is not frictionless. By 2030, strategic competition, policy deadlocks and concerns over inequality and algorithmic governance have become entrenched. –Macroeconomic conditions: While barriers to trade have only partially receded from the 2025 peaks, fast adoption and broad access to new technologies have revived growth dynamics, with annual global GDP growth surpassing 4% by 2030. Inflation has stayed largely under control across advanced economies. However, the risk of price shocks across emerging markets remains high. –Trade and investment: Trade in merchandise has stabilized while digital and services flows continue to grow exponentially, with high-growth economies and emerging services hubs using digital readiness and youthful populations to attract capital. The global economic geography is slowly aligning with the new geopolitical landscape, and countries explore a new form of strategic openness, balancing localization and regional diversification strategies. –Labour markets: Widespread and fast technology adoption, combined with global digital openness, has driven structural disruptions across occupations and labour markets. Wage polarization continues to increase as AI, the rise of global digital talent pipelines and the outsourcing of digital services decrease the bargaining power of workers. The economies that have successfully transformed their education and reskilling systems to develop digital talent, and supported human-centric jobs (including care, education and personal services), emerge more resilient. –Energy outlook: While the rollout of AI has dramatically increased energy demand, energy markets have remained stable and continue to decarbonize thanks to renewed international cooperation around climate action and adoption of green technologies. However, inadequate Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 9