Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

These futures have different characteristics when it comes to GDP (gross domestic product) growth, supply chain pressures, wage polarization, energy volatility, technology use and other economic data. Table 1 summarizes potential trajectories of these characteristics by 2030 relative to today’s baseline. Economic data trajectory for the four scenarios by 2030 TABLE 1 Indicator Baseline Scenario 1 Digitalized OrderScenario 2 Cautious StabilityScenario 3 Tech-based SurvivalScenario 4 Geotech Spheres Geopolitical risk index 149.1 Share of business tasks performed by technology, %22% GDP growth, annual % 3.2% Supply chain pressure index -0.01 US effective average tariff rate, % 17% Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio116.8 Energy price index, absolute monthly % change3.7% Trust in media, % of population 52% 1 Ratio between the total hourly earnings of the top 10% and the bottom 10% of the world’s wage earners. Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. Sources: Iacoviello, M. et al. (2025 average); World Economic Forum. (2025); International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025); Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2025 average); Yale University The Budget Lab. (2025); International Labour Organization (ILO). (2025); The World Bank. (2025); Edelman. (2025). 8 Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030