Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

Looking at the next five years, which of the following global trends will have the most significant impact on the strategy of multinational companies? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Demographic shifts in advanced and emerging economies 0%Decarbonization and the green transition 4%Shifts in consumer behaviour and demand 8%Domestic political polarization 16%Talent shortages and workforce transformation 24%Macroeconomic volatility (including inflation, interest rates, debt levels, etc.)24%Rising government intervention in the economy (e.g. industrial policy, strategic investments and controls, etc.)32%Geoeconomic fragmentation 52%Commercialization of Al and emerging technologies 72% Share of respondents (%)Four futures for the new economy in 2030 The purpose is not to predict the future, but to provide a framework to stress-test assumptions and navigate complex global outlook. The interaction of geopolitical and technological vectors generates the following four scenarios for the future of the global economy in 2030 (Figure 2). Scenario 1: Digitalized Order. Geopolitical stabilization and rapid technological adoption have restored growth levels across sectors and geographies, but also created new challenges. Despite the recovery of trade and investment flows, domestic tensions remain acute in many countries as labour market disruptions and risks of technology misuse increase. Scenario 2: Cautious Stability. Geopolitical normalization has lowered risk premiums and reduced price shocks, but growth remains stagnant as technology fails to deliver expected economic impacts. Adoption of frontier technologies has been limited to a few sectors and industry leaders across the world and has not had a significant impact on wages and jobs.Scenario 3: Tech-based Survival. Widespread technology adoption and geopolitical volatility have created a world where technological opportunities are vast, but trust, coordination and stability are in short supply. Businesses use digitalization to offset the costs of geopolitical disruptions, creating both new opportunities and material risks. Scenario 4: Geotech Spheres. As geopolitical volatility continues to rise, countries have turned isolationist and are limiting trade to their closest allies, while fading technology hype creates room for disillusionment. Asset prices slump and growth rates stall or turn negative. Domestically, labour markets become less polarized as businesses look to reshore jobs and technology, but face significant talent shortages.2 2.1 Scenarios at-a-glance Four scenarios for the future of the new economy in 2030 FIGURE 2 Technological adoptionGeopolitical context Scenario 2 Cautious Stability Slow and concentrated Fast and widespread Stable Scenario 4 Geotech SpheresScenario 1 Digitalized Order Scenario 3 Tech-based Survival Volatile Source: World Economic Forum. Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 7