Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

Global trends FIGURE 1 This first briefing paper in the series examines these uncertainties and explores scenarios for the future of the global economy at the intersection of geopolitical and technological vectors and their potential trajectories until 2030. The geopolitical context vector represents the degree to which the global order is stable, predictable and rules-based, versus being volatile, conflict-prone and fragmented. The scenarios considered focus on the economic and geoeconomic implications of this order.The technology adoption vector captures the pace and depth of technology adoption, ranging from fast and widespread to slow and concentrated. The scenarios consider the adoption of both emerging and available technologies across sectors and geographies. Taken together, the trajectories of these vectors create four plausible futures. Each of these futures has the potential to reshape sectors and disrupt individual businesses. The aim is not to predict where the world will be in 2030 but to provide a framework for analysing risks, opportunities and strategies across alternative futures. Looking at the next five years, which of the following global trends will have the most significant impact on the strategy of multinational companies? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Demographic shifts in advanced and emerging economies 0%Decarbonization and the green transition 4%Shifts in consumer behaviour and demand 8%Domestic political polarization 16%Talent shortages and workforce transformation 24%Macroeconomic volatility (including inflation, interest rates, debt levels, etc.)24%Rising government intervention in the economy (e.g. industrial policy, strategic investments and controls, etc.)32%Geoeconomic fragmentation 52%Commercialization of Al and emerging technologies 72% Share of respondents (%) Note: Respondents were allowed to select multiple options, n=25. Source: World Economic Forum. Survey of Chief Strategy Officers Community July–August 2025. Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 6