Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

1Introduction Geoeconomics and technology shifts are poised to reshape business strategies and the evolving patterns of the global economy. The global economic backdrop is one of heightened uncertainty amid weak growth and complex geoeconomics. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth to settle around 3.2% annually over the next five years – the weakest outlook in decades.1 Two key drivers of transformation are shaping this trajectory. On the one hand, fast-changing technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and autonomous systems are creating new growth opportunities, but also risks. Their integration – and the disruptions they will cause – deepen the uncertainty around the future of the global economy and its implications for business and workers. At the same time, global networks are fraying as decision-makers grapple with competing national and global priorities. The historic shifts in trade policy announced by the US throughout 20252 are reshaping the global economy, with far-reaching implications for consumers, businesses and policy-makers. Across many countries, the rise of economic nationalism and political polarization will continue to call into question the existing global economic architecture in the coming years.Looking back, businesses have faced a relatively benign environment in the past decades. As of the start of this decade, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply shocks and conflict have made this environment more volatile, with the latest developments in geoeconomics and technology creating new risks and opportunities. Taken together, the moment demands more structured, holistic and comprehensive decision-making. Throughout 2025–2026, the World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series uses scenario analysis and peer-level, cross-sectoral dialogue to help decision-makers navigate global trends and their implications for strategy, investment decisions and resilience. The Forum’s latest survey of chief strategy officers, conducted in July–August 2025, cited commercialization of AI and emerging technologies (cited by 72% of respondents) and geoeconomic fragmentation (52%) as the main global trends impacting business strategies in the next five years (Figure 1). 5 Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030