Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

Executive summary Heightened uncertainty, complex geoeconomics and fast-changing technologies are poised to challenge many of the assumptions that have guided corporate strategies over previous decades. In the new economy, strategic decisions involve heightened complexity, risks are more interdependent and opportunities can emerge in unexpected ways. Businesses need tools not just to adapt, but to anticipate and prepare. Foresight is critical to help businesses understand and harness the evolving patterns of the global economy. Turning uncertainty into foresight The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series uses scenario analysis and cross-industry dialogue to help decision-makers navigate global economic developments and their implications for strategy and investment decisions. The Forum’s latest survey of chief strategy officers, conducted in July–August 2025, cited commercialization of artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies (72%) and geoeconomic fragmentation (52%) as the main global trends impacting business strategies over the next five years. This inaugural edition in the series explores the critical uncertainties around geopolitical and technological trends, and how their trajectories could shape the future of the global economy. Four scenarios for the new economy in 2030 The interaction of geopolitics and technology adoption vectors generates the following four scenarios for the future of the global economy in 2030. 1 Digitalized Order: Geopolitical stabilization and rapid technological adoption have restored growth levels across sectors and geographies, but also created new challenges. Despite the recovery of trade and investment flows, domestic tensions remain acute in many countries as labour market disruptions and risks of technology misuse increase. 2 Cautious Stability: Geopolitical normalization has lowered risk premiums and reduced price shocks, but growth remains stagnant as technology fails to deliver expected economic impacts. Adoption of frontier technologies has been limited to a few sectors and industry leaders across the world and has not had a significant impact on wages and jobs. 3 Tech-based Survival: Widespread technology adoption and geopolitical volatility have created a world where technological opportunities are vast, but trust, coordination and stability are in short supply. Businesses use digitalization to offset the costs of geopolitical disruptions, creating both new opportunities and material risks. 4 Geotech Spheres: As geopolitical volatility continues to rise, countries have turned isolationist and are limiting trade to their closest allies, while fading technology hype creates room for disillusionment. Asset prices slump and growth rates stall or turn negative. Domestically, labour markets become less polarized as businesses look to reshore jobs and technology, but face significant talent shortages. Strategies for the future Building on the scenario analysis, insights from consultations with chief strategy officers and experts, and the analysis of business implications across the four scenarios, the following strategies have been identified as potential “no-regret” moves to help businesses mitigate risks, seize opportunities and harness the potential trajectories of geopolitical and technology trends regardless of which future emerges. –Strengthen core operations –Develop geopolitical function and intelligence –Strengthen foresight- and data-driven decision-making –Invest in supply chain resilience and agility –Invest in adopting and scaling emerging technologies –Strengthen critical infrastructure –Develop agile capital allocation models –Align technology and human capital development –Deepen strategic partnerships and alliancesNavigating the new economy requires agility, resilience and, above all, foresight. Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 4