Four Futures for the New Economy Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 2025

Foreword Geoeconomic shifts are reshaping regulatory frameworks and the established patterns of trade, investment, talent and knowledge flows. Technological breakthroughs – from artificial intelligence (AI) agents to autonomous systems and biotechnology – are accelerating innovation, albeit raising urgent questions about economic inclusion, safety and governance. Financial markets oscillate between exuberance and volatility, while societies are grappling with growing debt, demographic shifts, rising polarization and the continued effects of climate change. The result is a global economic landscape marked by complex trade-offs and adapting to multiple transformative shifts. Businesses that thrive in the new economy will be those that prepare broadly, adapt continuously and create resilient and inclusive ecosystems. The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series uses scenario analysis to stress-test assumptions, uncover blind spots and parse through a range of economic uncertainties. It provides business leaders with a space for peer-level, cross-sectoral dialogue on key economic developments, interconnected risks and their implications for strategy and investment decisions. This white paper consolidates views and insights from the members of the World Economic Forum’s Chief Strategy Officers Community and other experts across the Forum’s industry communities and Global Foresight Network. It explores how the interaction between two critical forces – geoeconomics and technology – and their potential trajectories could shape the global economy by 2030. Building on the perspectives of experts and business leaders, the paper presents four distinct scenarios for 2030 and analyses key risks, opportunities and strategy implications for businesses across these alternative futures. It also offers a set of “no-regret” moves that have emerged through dialogues as strategies that could help businesses prepare today for any scenario. The aim of these scenarios is not to predict where the world will be in 2030, but to translate foresight- driven insights into practical value for decision- makers and to provide a framework to help leaders explore, question and adapt to the complex global economic developments. This white paper is the first output in a series of scenario explorations on key economic topics and their implications for business. The dialogue series will explore different scenarios in each quarter of 2026, focusing on challenges and uncertainties of business relevance. We hope it will be a useful resource for decision-makers and a foundation for ongoing dialogue.Mirek Dušek Managing Director, Chief Business Officer and Head of Global Programming, World Economic ForumSaadia Zahidi Managing Director and Head, Centre for the New Economy and Society, World Economic Forum Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030December 2025 Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 3