Structural foundations: This scenario emerges from accelerated global decarbonization efforts, stringent environmental regulations and consumer demand for low-impact travel. By 2030, the EU Emissions Trading System allocates auction revenues to decarbonization projects, including the Innovation Fund, which has a budget of €40 billion ($43.3 billion) up to 2030 for low-carbon technologies,46 while SAF adoption reaches 28% of global aviation consumption (up from 0.1% in 2023).47 The TTDI 2024 highlights a 15% improvement in T&T Socioeconomic Impact scores since 2019, driven by “just transition” programmes that reskill fossil fuel-dependent workers for renewable energy roles in tourism. Bhutan’s “high- value, low-volume” tourism model is adopted by 45 small-island developing states (SIDS), reducing average visitor density by 37% while increasing per capita expenditure by 52%.48 Demand–supply dynamics: Regenerative tourism dominates market growth, with 68% of travellers prioritizing destinations certified by the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC). Digital platforms such as SustainChain (a United Nations- led blockchain registry) verify eco-certifications, reducing the incidence of greenwashing by 43%.49 Demand shifts towards low-emission transport: high-speed rail networks expand by 29% in Europe and Asia-Pacific, while small-island destinations such as the Maldives and the Seychelles achieve 90% renewable energy reliance through floating solar farms and tidal generators. Supply-side constraints emerge as aviation capacity stagnates (−12% growth vs. pre-2030 projections) due to SAF production bottlenecks. Luxury eco- lodges thrive (Costa Rica’s Lapa Rios achieves 28% ROI), but mid-tier hotels struggle with retrofitting costs. The TTDI’s Environmental Sustainability pillar reveals a 19-point gap between high-income economies (5.2 average) and SIDS (3.3 average), reflecting uneven access to green financing.50 Economic multipliers – the scenario yields significant socioeconomic benefits: –Employment: Green T&T jobs surge to 18 million by 2035, with women occupying 61% of renewable energy roles in emerging markets.51 –Value-chain localization: Kenya’s eco-safari operators source 78% of food/handicrafts from communities within a radius of 50 km, boosting rural GDP by 14%.52 Another example is the Adjara Group in Georgia, which manages hotels and restaurants and has developed its own farming projects – such as a 2-hectare farm in Scenario 3: Green ascent This third scenario is marked by a rapid sustainability transition and moderate growth and has the following characteristics. Caption: Manuel Antonio National Park, Costa Rica Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 13

Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025