Udabno and a vertical “space farm” – to supply fresh produce, dairy and other ingredients directly to its hospitality operations. By sourcing from its own farms and collaborating with local farmers through the Georgian Farmers’ Association, Adjara Group supports rural employment, reduces food miles and waste, preserves local culinary traditions and strengthens the regional economy, illustrating how local sourcing can deliver both environmental and social sustainability benefits.53 –Carbon markets: Global mangrove carbon markets could possibly yield up to $3.7 billion annually under optimistic pricing, yet Caribbean- specific revenues are likely far lower (closer to $100 million–$500 million/year) due to smaller mangrove areas and implementation challenges.54 Risk matrix: –Greenwashing litigation: Class actions against false sustainability claims cost the sector $7.2 billion annually by 2030. As suggested mitigation, conduct mandatory life cycle assessment (LCA) audits under ISO 14090 for all GSTC-certified properties. –Stranded coastal assets: 1.2 million hotel rooms (6.8% of the total supply in 2025) are facing flood risks exceeding 1-in-30-year events. A possible mitigation would be to implement parametric insurance pools covering 60% of Caribbean properties via World Bank Climate Resilience Bonds.55 –Biofuel land grabs: Palm oil-derived SAF production could displace approximately 3.2 million hectares of tropical rainforest by 2030 if current aviation climate targets rely heavily on palm oil and soy-based biofuels.56 A policy similar to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism penalties implemented for non- compliant biofuels could be replicated here. Sustainability trade-offs – ecotourism hotspots face new pressures: Costa Rica’s Monteverde Cloud Forest experiences 23% biodiversity loss from unregulated “voluntourism” projects. The TTDI’s T&T Demand Sustainability scores decline 7.4% (2024–2030) as certification fatigue triggers “green rebellion”57 among budget travellers.58 This third scenario underscores T&T’s potential to drive decarbonization but reveals tensions between growth and preservation. Stakeholders must, however, balance certification rigour with accessibility, while addressing equity gaps in green financing. Caption: Perhentian Islands, Malaysia Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 14

Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025