From Blind Spots to Insights 2025

Interviewees were asked to describe how they currently track geopolitical developments, identify key decision points and explain how their tracking methods have evolved over time. Looking across sectors and geographies, international businesses have distinct purposes and tasks in mind when developing their geopolitical radar. Within companies, executives typically undertake at least eight such tasks: –Ensure compliance with existing sanctions, export controls and other regulations. –Assess current exposure to geopolitical contingencies. –Identify mitigation steps for certain defined geopolitical contingences. –Execute mitigation measures when contingencies come to pass. –Conduct enterprise risk management initiatives, in light of geopolitical insights. –Carry out war-gaming and scenario planning exercises on potential geopolitical events. –Review and reformulate corporate strategy, in light of geopolitical insights. –Include geopolitical insights as an input to the performance review by the corporate board. One task notably absent from all but one interviewed company’s list was predicting specific geopolitical events, a goal widely considered too ambitious. To adapt General Eisenhower’s famous quote about planning: “prediction is useless, but estimates are indispensable.” Indeed, it was noteworthy that a few interviewees made explicit reference to the practices of government intelligence communities in guiding the development of their own tracking and geopolitical radar. The notion of preparing “estimates” is a well- developed practice in several intelligence agencies. To understand how firms are developing their geopolitical radar, it is useful to distinguish between their methods for tracking and assessing relevant information, be it for near-term tracking or longer- term trend and scenario assessment. A frequent feature of the interviews was a discussion of the merits of outside support versus in-house capabilities to support (part of) these functions. 2.1 Objectives and tasks All firms interviewed have some in-house staff and/or advisors tasked with tracking geopolitical developments. The calendar for certain events – such as elections and the campaigns that precede them – are known in advance and, where material, tend to be tracked. The run-up to the US presidential election in November 2024 was a case in point. Most interviewees agreed that a wide range of information sources – beyond mainstream and English-speaking media – is necessary to develop a holistic picture of the geopolitical landscape and avoid selection bias. Local media across markets, podcasts and even fiction were mentioned as potential sources and inspiration. Some mentioned local offices as important sources of intelligence, especially in key markets for a firm. Customers and other stakeholders can be important sources too. One consumer-facing company went as far as to emphasize the need to track consumer sentiment across markets, to identify potential reputational issues stemming from geopolitical developments. In addition, engaging outside consultants and experts has become standard to leverage their expertise and networks, especially in areas where the firm does not believe that it has adequate depth in its own in-house capabilities. Think tanks were mentioned as useful sources, providing a bridge to government and thus enabling companies to understand the policy-making agenda. Many of the companies interviewed stated a preference for engaging directly with government to understand and even align with its policy agenda. A few interviewees mentioned frequent exchanges with the national security community, including international and intergovernmental organizations (e.g. NATO) to detect emerging risks. One point mentioned a few times is that policy-makers value industry insights and data that companies possess and are therefore willing to engage in dialogue. That said, more than one interviewee cautioned against placing too much emphasis on contacts with senior policy-makers. While attention from the latter may be flattering, it was argued that officials are not disinterested parties and they may shade various outcomes and their consequences in a more favourable light than may be the case. The importance of corroboration of information was stressed. In terms of the language of the 2.2 Tracking geopolitics A wide range of information sources – beyond mainstream and English- speaking media – is necessary to develop a holistic picture of the geopolitical landscape and avoid selection bias. From Blind Spots to Insights: Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global Business 11