From Wildfire Risk to Resilience The Investment Case for Action 2026

In 2024, 18% of forest carbon projects on the voluntary carbon market were exposed to wildfire.77 Left unmanaged, wildfires pose an increasingly significant risk to the existing carbon market, as fires release stored carbon and destroy the value of the offsets. However, wildfire prevention and resilience can be seen as a carbon-mitigation asset capable of generating verified, tradable climate value. By integrating carbon revenue streams into prevention finance, mitigation actions such as fuel treatments, prescribed fire and home hardening can yield two measurable payoffs: 1. Reduced expected annual losses that stabilize insurance and credit costs 2. Avoided CO2e emissions that can be monetized under compliance or voluntary carbon market frameworks This dual accounting, economic and atmospheric, has the potential to create a recurring cash flow that allows prevention projects to refinance over time. Each treated hectare can yield an EAL dividend for insurers and utilities while earning high-integrity carbon credits, forming a closed resilience-carbon loop where verified risk reduction funds the next cycle of prevention. Carbon credit mechanisms –Compliance integration: Where eligible, align with tested protocols and compliance-grade measurement and reporting.78 –Voluntary market premiums for co-benefits: Buyers value biodiversity and watershed co-benefits.79 –Stacking without double-counting: For example, follow the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative’s Claims Code of Practice guidance to combine carbon with water/biodiversity claims credibly.80 As another example, use protocols, such as the methodology being developed by Verra in collaboration with the National Forest Foundation and Vibrant Planet, to certify forests in the Mediterranean.813.3 Carbon markets and climate finance integration: closing the cycle From Wildfire Risk to Resilience: The Investment Case for Action 17