Future of Jobs Report 2025

Page 100 of 290 · WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf

companies, economies, industries and roles. Turnover induced by employees moving between jobs for personal reasons is not included. Fractional metrics Respondents aggregated roles included in the jobs taxonomy to six groups: –Main roles in the organization with a growing employment outlook for the next five years –Main roles in the organization with a declining employment outlook for the next five years –Main roles in the organization with a stable employment outlook for the next five years –Roles that are relatively small presently but strategically important and with a growing employment outlook for the next five years Respondents allocated up to five roles from the jobs taxonomy to each of the four groups. One of the five roles in the presently relatively small but strategically important and with a growing employment outlook could be specified by a free-text field. Free-text fields were subsequently allocated to jobs in the jobs taxonomy where possible. Metrics on roles are only published in the report when they meet statistical criteria in a given sample. Respondents subsequently allocated workforce fractions to each of the above groups of jobs at present, and estimated the growth and decline of the main roles with growing outlook, main roles with declining outlook, and relatively small roles presently with growing outlook. These workforce fractions were used to calculate two metrics: estimated net growth between 2025 and 2030 and estimated structural labour-market churn from 2025 to 2030, for the labour forces pertaining to roles in the jobs taxonomy. In the calculation of net growth, for a specific role, a simple mean of the growth and decline was first calculated based on projection from the respondents who have selected this role, while the growth of the roles identified as stable outlook is zero. The net growth draws on weighted averages of the growth and decline weighted on the number of respondents who consider this role as growing and stable, with the numerator reflecting the weighted shares of anticipated workforce increases and decreases and the denominator aggregating total workforce shares across all anticipated states (growing, declining and stable). The churn metric, similarly, adopts absolute values for workforce decreases. These methodologies aim to present an objective, scalable perspective on workforce transformations at the role and industry level. Reweighted metrics International Labour Organization (ILO) data were then used to translate the forecast fractional net growth for each role into estimates of the number of jobs that will be created or displaced between 2025 and 2030. ILO estimates of the number of employees in each occupational category of ISCO08 level 2 were used as a basis for the number of employees working at the time of publication. To account for the absence of China-specific data in the ILO’s employment-by-occupation dataset, a China employment multiplier was calculated based on the share of China’s employment figure in global employment figure and applied under the assumption that China’s labour market structure aligns with global patterns. To approximate the number of employees in each occupation of the jobs taxonomy used in the Future of Jobs Survey, the jobs taxonomy (a modified and extended version of the O*NET SOC occupational classification) was mapped to the ISCO08 occupational taxonomy used in the ILO data by modifying and extending the map developed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which connects SOC level 4 and ISCO08 level 4. Estimates of present employment were then multiplied by the fractional net growth estimates obtained from the survey, to estimate net growth worldwide in units of millions of employees. Using this method, the Future of Jobs dataset described in Chapter 2 corresponds to 1.18 billion employees. By comparison, the ILO dataset used in the analysis accounts for 2.18 billion employees, and 2.76 billion employees upon applying the China multiplier. The remaining 1.58 billion employees correspond to roles for which the Future of Jobs Survey did not collect sufficient data to reliably estimate net growth. Data on employees rather than general employment was used as organizations responding to the Future of Jobs Survey maintain workers in formal rather than informal employment. The estimates of the number of employees per sector which can be found in the Industry Profiles are based on the full dataset of 2.18 billion employees worldwide. This calculation is described in the user guide to the profiles. Attribution to jobs To analyze the impact of specific trends on job growth and decline, survey respondents attributed the growth and decline of roles to macrotrends and technology trends. Respondent’s weighted attribution was used to allocate a fraction of job changes to specific trends. These were then mapped to ILO occupation data to calculate the absolute number of jobs created and destroyed per occupation in the next five years. Future of Jobs Report 2025 100
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