Future of Jobs Report 2025
Page 100 of 290 · WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf
companies, economies, industries and roles.
Turnover induced by employees moving between
jobs for personal reasons is not included.
Fractional metrics
Respondents aggregated roles included in the jobs
taxonomy to six groups:
–Main roles in the organization with a growing
employment outlook for the next five years
–Main roles in the organization with a declining
employment outlook for the next five years
–Main roles in the organization with a stable
employment outlook for the next five years
–Roles that are relatively small presently but
strategically important and with a growing
employment outlook for the next five years
Respondents allocated up to five roles from the jobs
taxonomy to each of the four groups. One of the five
roles in the presently relatively small but strategically
important and with a growing employment outlook
could be specified by a free-text field. Free-text
fields were subsequently allocated to jobs in the jobs
taxonomy where possible. Metrics on roles are only
published in the report when they meet statistical
criteria in a given sample.
Respondents subsequently allocated workforce
fractions to each of the above groups of jobs at
present, and estimated the growth and decline of
the main roles with growing outlook, main roles with
declining outlook, and relatively small roles presently
with growing outlook. These workforce fractions
were used to calculate two metrics: estimated net
growth between 2025 and 2030 and estimated
structural labour-market churn from 2025 to 2030,
for the labour forces pertaining to roles in the jobs
taxonomy. In the calculation of net growth, for a
specific role, a simple mean of the growth and
decline was first calculated based on projection
from the respondents who have selected this role,
while the growth of the roles identified as stable
outlook is zero. The net growth draws on weighted
averages of the growth and decline weighted on the
number of respondents who consider this role as
growing and stable, with the numerator reflecting the
weighted shares of anticipated workforce increases
and decreases and the denominator aggregating
total workforce shares across all anticipated states
(growing, declining and stable). The churn metric,
similarly, adopts absolute values for workforce
decreases. These methodologies aim to present
an objective, scalable perspective on workforce
transformations at the role and industry level. Reweighted metrics
International Labour Organization (ILO) data were
then used to translate the forecast fractional net
growth for each role into estimates of the number
of jobs that will be created or displaced between
2025 and 2030. ILO estimates of the number
of employees in each occupational category of
ISCO08 level 2 were used as a basis for the number
of employees working at the time of publication.
To account for the absence of China-specific data
in the ILO’s employment-by-occupation dataset,
a China employment multiplier was calculated
based on the share of China’s employment figure
in global employment figure and applied under the
assumption that China’s labour market structure
aligns with global patterns. To approximate the
number of employees in each occupation of
the jobs taxonomy used in the Future of Jobs
Survey, the jobs taxonomy (a modified and
extended version of the O*NET SOC occupational
classification) was mapped to the ISCO08
occupational taxonomy used in the ILO data by
modifying and extending the map developed by the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which connects
SOC level 4 and ISCO08 level 4. Estimates of
present employment were then multiplied by the
fractional net growth estimates obtained from the
survey, to estimate net growth worldwide in units of
millions of employees.
Using this method, the Future of Jobs dataset
described in Chapter 2 corresponds to 1.18
billion employees. By comparison, the ILO dataset
used in the analysis accounts for 2.18 billion
employees, and 2.76 billion employees upon
applying the China multiplier. The remaining 1.58
billion employees correspond to roles for which
the Future of Jobs Survey did not collect sufficient
data to reliably estimate net growth. Data on
employees rather than general employment was
used as organizations responding to the Future of
Jobs Survey maintain workers in formal rather than
informal employment.
The estimates of the number of employees per
sector which can be found in the Industry Profiles
are based on the full dataset of 2.18 billion
employees worldwide. This calculation is described
in the user guide to the profiles.
Attribution to jobs
To analyze the impact of specific trends on job
growth and decline, survey respondents attributed
the growth and decline of roles to macrotrends
and technology trends. Respondent’s weighted
attribution was used to allocate a fraction of job
changes to specific trends. These were then
mapped to ILO occupation data to calculate the
absolute number of jobs created and destroyed per
occupation in the next five years.
Future of Jobs Report 2025
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