Technology trends2 SAF availability eased with new HEFA projects coming online, e-fuels and hydrogen need a boost, while AI brings renewed focus on efficiency. There were notable project developments during 2025 that expanded SAF production capacity. HEFA-based production continued to dominate the technology mix, while the number of e-fuel plants progressing to construction remained low. Project cancellations and technical challenges prompted executives to call on policy-makers to double down on SAF, especially on e-fuel. Nevertheless, there remain diverging views on the benefits and costs that e-fuel brings about, as well as on hydrogen more widely, even if progress continues. Executives interviewed for this report also noted their increasing interest in operational efficiency and in the benefits AI could bring alongside greater digitalization, data collection and transparency. Looking at decarbonization technology first, the development of SAF plants continued to progress, with multiple projects moving to production in 2025 and overall fuel outputs increasing to 1.9 million tonnes (2.4 billion litres). This is equivalent to 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption and twice the amount of SAF produced in the previous year.5 In addition, new SAF projects were announced, contributing towards a strong pipeline across regions. United States (US) The US has been driving this growth. For example: –LanzaJet’s plant in Georgia, US, successfully managed to produce SAF at commercial scale for the first time via the alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) pathway.6 –Infinium announced it has taken a final investment decision (FID) on its e-fuel Project Roadrunner facility in Texas, progressing to construction in 2027.7 –ENEOS and Mitsubishi Corporation advanced plans to progress the development of their SAF facility (0.3 million tonnes) in Hawaii to the next stage, alongside other projects across regions.8 Some US biorefineries, however, continue to produce less SAF than their full capacity, claiming weak market conditions and changes to feedstock policy.9 Taking into consideration such renewable fuel policy changes and wider market trends, the US Government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its forecasts for 2026 and expects production of SAF to plateau in the US, averaging around 40,000 barrels per day, only growing again in 2027.10,112.1 SAF availability and scalability As the general partner of the Japan Hydrogen Fund, a global energy transition infrastructure fund, Advantage Partners is supporting Infinium, together with fellow shareholders, to advance as many projects as possible to final investment decision. We have secured multiple binding offtake agreements, helping to translate e-SAF projects into commercial reality. Achieving scale requires the alignment of financing, technology and offtake with supportive policy frameworks, and this is where we are focused on delivering value. Richard Folsom, Co-Founder, Advantage Partners Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 14