weak levels (3.1% over the coming five years), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).9 This projection comes alongside a burgeoning debt crisis that has left over 3 billion people living in countries that spend more on debt interest than education or health.10 The sharp decline in global security has weighed heavily on the Global Cooperation Barometer’s calculation of global cooperation. It is a key reason the barometer shows that for the last three years, overall global cooperation has levelled off despite relatively stronger levels of cooperation in the areas of climate and nature, innovation and technology, and health and wellness (Figure 2). However, the flatlining of cooperation does not mean that cooperation has completely receded. In September 2024, the UN General Assembly adopted the Pact for the Future – an ambitious agenda to strengthen international cooperation and revitalize multilateralism. In November, the world’s 20 largest economies agreed in Rio de Janeiro to a joint G20 Leader’s Declaration, a few days prior to a global agreement for a climate financing at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku. However, both did fall short of expectations, signalling that the global cooperative muscle, while working, is atrophying. The mixed picture of cooperation is salient when comparing cooperation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 3). Strengthened cooperation can be seen across four of the five pillars, notably when it comes to indicators that track the cross-border spread of knowledge, R&D, data flows and the increase of certain capital flows such as foreign investment and climate finance. However, these positive markers should be qualified in two ways; firstly, that rising flows were often concentrated in a few economies, potentially undermining the broad-based prosperity that is needed to sustain cooperative trends. Secondly, as noted, these flows remain well below levels required to reach collective goals (for example, reaching net-zero targets). As the world moves further away from the post- Cold War era of cooperation and finds itself in a period of greater disorder, it is at risk of maintaining a new, structurally muted cooperative normal that offers fewer opportunities for actors to pursue solutions to known and emerging global issues together. To avoid this outcome, leaders will need to take steps that deliver immediate results to populations who are waiting for answers while putting the world on course towards achieving collective goals. Comparison of pre- and post-pandemic cooperation FIGURE 3 0.751.102022-23 average1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.801.05Excluding the COVID-19 period, cooperation has increased across all pillars besides peace and security 2018-19 average0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 Extrapolated increase based on 2012-19 trend 45° line, where 2022-23 average = 2018- 19 averageThe black 45-degree line marks where cooperation in the latest two years (2022-23) is equal to the two years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (2018-19), and the red line represents where the metrics would be if they maintained the average pre-pandemic trend. Four of the pillars displayed increased levels of cooperation relative to the pre-pandemic trend (above both the red and black lines). Health and wellnessHigher post-2020Climate and natural capital Trade and capital Innovation and technology Peace and securityLower post-2020 Source: Aggregation of 41 metrics, McKinsey & Company analysis. The Global Cooperation Barometer 2025 Second Edition 8