Frontier technologies are reshaping the global landscape. As the world enters a new period in which machine learning applications will scale across economies and societies, mastering artificial intelligence (AI) will be crucial for countries and companies to deliver growth.11 Generative AI alone could generate $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in value across industries.12 Yet, while AI is projected to affect almost 40% of jobs around the world, according to the IMF, approximately half of these are at risk of redundancy.13 Both companies and countries are racing to position themselves competitively within this new reality. In just over a year since it was introduced, generative AI is being used by the organizations of 65% of respondents to a McKinsey & Company survey of global executives.14 At the country level, US federal investment in AI has accelerated significantly15 in recent years and China is expected to invest $1.4 trillion in its AI industry over the coming years.16 Saudi Arabia has committed17 to invest $100 billion in AI projects and India announced plans to develop a “national AI innovation ecosystem”.18 The rapid increase in national funding of AI, alongside restrictions in some countries over the ability to invest in foreign markets, raises the possibility of a new frontline of geostrategic competition, with the potential for an “AI arms race” in which countries compete in zero-sum rivalry for geostrategic advantage.19 This landscape of competition would complicate the ability to develop safeguards to mitigate the risks of new technology. Left ungoverned, AI could accelerate the dissemination of disinformation and bring new risks to peace and security. Yet, signs of cooperation have emerged. For instance, in November 2024 at a meeting in Peru on the sidelines of the APEC Summit, Chinese President Xi and US President Biden agreed to prevent AI from having control over nuclear weapons systems. In September, the UN Secretary-General’s High-level Advisory Body on AI issued its final report, Governing AI for Humanity, which presents the first global plan for addressing AI-related risks and ensuring the benefits of the technology are shared equitably. In today’s challenging context, leaders will both need to find ways to work together to prevent new advancements in AI from being used for harmful purposes (either on its own or by malicious actors), and unlock benefits in the areas the Global Cooperation Barometer measures. Trade and capital: crucial to and a beneficiary of new technologies Well-functioning global cooperation in the form of trade and capital flow is a crucial requirement for the invention and deployment of new technologies. This type of cooperation includes the flow of financing for innovation, the flow of cross-border services to develop innovation, and the flow of materials and goods to manufacture and distribute innovation. Once technologies are developed, cooperation is needed to ensure that these technologies are shared equitably. Rising trade restrictions, especially in important innovation sectors such as low-carbon technologies, present significant risks to global cooperation and progress on sustainability goals and the global accessibility of these innovations.20 While trade is crucial for facilitating the development of new technologies, new technologies can offer immense efficiency gains and increased opportunities for trade. By some estimates, digitizing the trade ecosystem could increase trade across the G7 by nearly $9 trillion or nearly 43%.21 Mastering artificial intelligence will be crucial for countries and companies to deliver growth. Innovation: a frontline of cooperation… and competition 9 The Global Cooperation Barometer 2025 Second Edition