Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025

Industry exposure, by scenario TABLE 1 Note: Considerations in the analysis include indicators of industries’ 1. potential for automation or augmentation, 2. reliance on skilled workers, 3. skills development efforts, 4. R&D intensity, 5. vulnerability to cross-border technology restrictions, 6. potential revenue uplift from AI adoption, 7. investment capital shortage; Orange = higher potential headwinds for sectors’ output and profitability; Green = higher potential tailwinds for sector’s output and profitability; Yellow = uncertain or inconclusive impact. See Appendix A1 for further details on methodology and data. Sources: World Economic Forum and Accenture analysis based on data from World Economic Forum, ILO, S&P Capital IQ, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, McKinsey & Company. From this analysis, four broad clusters of sectors emerge, each characterized by varying levels of exposure to technological and human capital trends: –Sectors that combine highly skilled labour with a strong potential for technology adoption – including manufacturing and financial, professional and real estate services – appear well positioned to harness both technological advancements and human capital development. –Sectors with a high share of human- centric occupations – including education and medical, healthcare and care services – appear well-positioned to benefit from any acceleration of the technological augmentation of roles, and from shifts towards more human-centric economies, as in the Human Advantage scenario. –Sectors with lower reliance on technology and highly skilled labour – such as agriculture, forestry and fishing – appear resilient to disruption across the scenarios, but also exhibit limited upside potential. –Sectors reliant on high levels of manual labour and niche occupation-specific skills – such as mining, engineering and construction – appear more exposed to slowdowns in human capital development and shortages of the talent needed to fully realize the potential benefits of technological acceleration. The remainder of this chapter looks more closely at the implications across five selected business sectors, analysing how the trends and factors discussed interact in diverse contexts.Headwinds Tailwinds Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Productivity LeapAutomation OverloadHuman AdvantageProductivity Drought Agriculture, forestry and fishing Education Energy and materials Engineering, construction and utilities Financial, professional, real estate services Information technology and digital communications Leisure and travel Manufacturing Medical, healthcare and care services Mining (excluding fossil fuels) Retail and wholesale of consumer goods Supply chain and transport services Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 18