Strategic partnerships between governments, businesses and education providers will be essential to meeting evolving skills demand in both technology- and talent-driven scenarios.The sector’s reliance on highly specialized skills, coupled with low transferability, presents risks in scenarios of talent shortages. While automation can increase efficiency in extraction and processing, widening skills gaps threaten grid security and could stall productivity across the value chain. To address these challenges, the sector will need to attract top talent while prioritizing upskilling and reskilling to retain industry-specific expertise.64 Human capital improvements can unlock efficiency gains, especially in more labour-intensive activities, but the impact may be limited without the integration of technologies. In scenarios of twin slowdowns in technological and human capital development, the resulting higher energy costs could ripple across industries. Limited progress on green technologies risks increasing reliance on fossil fuels and exacerbating global energy insecurity. Skills gaps, talent acquisition difficulties and regulatory hurdles remain key barriers to transformation by 2030 (see Figure 6). These challenges are particularly acute for energy technology firms, with 81% identifying skills gaps as a critical obstacle, compared to 54% in oil and gas.65 Energy companies must balance investments between maintaining existing infrastructure and advancing energy transition technologies. Innovations such as battery storage, hydrogen and carbon capture, while capital-intensive, can offer long-term productivity gains by reducing reliance on volatile energy prices. Given the capital intensity and extended payback periods of energy projects, focusing on modular and scalable projects that enable incremental investments aligned with growing demand can help build agility and optimize costs. Education The education sector’s critical role in driving technological and talent development positions it as a key enabler of productivity and growth across most scenarios. In futures of accelerating human capital development, the sector stands to benefit from increasing investment by governments and businesses. Similarly, scenarios of technological acceleration are likely to drive growth opportunities for education providers as demand for training and specialized skills increases. Broader technology integration across the sector could amplify productivity, open new markets and improve profitability. For instance, AI adoption alone is projected to bring $200 billion in value by 2025.66 While automation can enhance productivity and education outcomes,67 the sector’s reliance on highly skilled educators and training providers is likely to ensure that human-delivered services will remain essential. Futures shaped by technological slowdowns, such as the Human Advantage scenario, may unlock growth opportunities tied to increased demand for skilled labour and human- centric occupations. Strategic partnerships between governments, businesses and education providers will be essential to meeting evolving skills demand in both technology- and talent-driven scenarios. For example, initiatives to enhance workforce employability and develop skills for AI and other emerging technologies can create opportunities for growth in corporate microlearning services, a market valued at approximately $1.9 billion in 2021.68 Operational improvements, such as cloud-based systems, can increase the scalability and agility of education services, enabling providers to deliver “just-in-time” or on-demand learning tailored to industry needs. This operational flexibility positions adaptable and innovative education providers for growth in a competitive and dynamic environment. Digital education ecosystems have the potential to boost accessibility, inclusion and individualized learning pathways in many advanced economies. However, the greatest gains in the sector may be achieved in developing markets with weaker educational infrastructure and structural talent gaps. Subsidized digital classrooms, hybrid learning models and targeted educator training can help address regional disparities and expand access to quality education. However, these efforts face significant hurdles, as nearly two-thirds of the global population still lacks internet access, limiting the potential for broad-based gains.69 Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 22

Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025