CLIMATE TRENDS & PRO JECTIONS | CITY OF ASHLAND, OREGON | FINAL REPORT | 14 Figure 5. Projections of number of days within a warm spell for Ashland as simulated by 18 downscaled global climate models for the historical period (1950 -2005) and fu ture (2006 -2099) under a low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Solid line and shading depicts the 18 -model mean and range, respectively. The multi -model mean differences for the 2050s (2040 -2069 average) and 2080s (2070 -2099 ave rage) compared to the historical baseline (1950 -2005) are displayed . Days above 100°F and 110°F The range of future changes in the number of days at or above 100°F in Ashland is 3 to 19 for the 2050s and 5 to 40 for the 2080s (see Table 2); this is the range across all models and both emissions scenarios. The multi - model mean projects an increase of 27 days by the 2080s under the high emissions scenario compared to the historic baseline (1950 -2005) (see Figure 4). The multi -model mean projects an increase of 3 days at or above 110°F for the 2080s under the high emissions scenario with a range of 0 to 6 days. Figure 6. Projections of number of days over 100°F (top) and 110°F (bott om) for Ashland as simulated by 18 downscaled global climate models for the historical period (1950 -2005) and future (2006 -2099) under a low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Solid line and shading depicts the 18 -model mean and range, respectively. The multi -model mean differences for the 2050s (2040 - 2069 average) and 2080s (2070 -2099 average) compared to the historical baseline (1950 -2005) are displayed. Ashland W arm Spell Da ys Pr ojectionsDays Histor ical Low (RCP4.5) High (RCP8.5) 2050s +27 da ys2050s +39 da ys 2080s +39 da ys2080s +89 da ys 020406080100120140160180200220240 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Ashland # Da ys over 100°F Pr ojectionsDays Histor ical Low (RCP4.5) High (RCP8.5) 2050s 6 days2050s 11 da ys 2080s 10 da ys2080s 27 da ys 01020304050607080 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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