technologies (including quantum, biotechnology and geoengineering) at the country level. Risk perceptions associated with these technologies are rising globally but remain concentrated among a small group of relatively technology-advanced states. However, the limited number of countries placing it among top national risks may indicate a divergence in awareness and preparedness for many countries, as well as potentially long-lasting capability gaps. The chasms between countries could last for years or decades, given the significant resources and technological know-how required to build quantum computing systems. Over time, the divergence in economic performance between those countries benefiting from quantum technologies and those that are not could become so wide that it would provide outsized leverage in areas from trade negotiations to attracting talent and accessing natural resources, as well as a deepening divide in military strength. With geoeconomic confrontation expected to continue to colour policy-making over the next decade, leading governments will be likely not only to further build out measures designed to protect their competitive advantages in quantum technologies, but also increasingly to try to stifle competing countries’ efforts to make progress in this field. Measures already include significant export controls, not only on quantum technologies themselves, but on the broader technology ecosystems needed for their development,137 including the raw materials required for key components of quantum computing systems such as cryocoolers and lasers.138 Within countries that make quantum breakthroughs, there will be serious challenges, too. The threat of further societal polarization is high if governments do not manage carefully the associated opportunities and risks. Much will depend on how the governments and companies that make quantum breakthroughs exert their power and on whether appropriate guardrails are put in place. The Q2 and the rest? Over time, it is possible that two parallel quantum ecosystems, led by China and the United States, develop. Each would have its own standards, supply chains and protocols, with limited interoperability between systems. If countries Executive perceptions of Adverse outcomes associated with frontier technologies, 2026–2028FIGURE 49 Source World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2025.Executive Opinion Survey rank of national risks from the question “Which ﬁve risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?” 1st10th20th30th34thRank Global Risks Report 2026 57