Navigating new pressures Global economy: profound shifts and changes The global economy is undergoing significant change, marked by rising protectionism, geopolitical tension and economic fragmentation. Trade disputes and shifting alliances have disrupted supply chains and increased costs for businesses, with the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reporting record levels of trade policy uncertainty in early 2025.4 Meanwhile, intensifying climate impacts are compounding these challenges. More frequent and severe weather events are undermining agricultural productivity, damaging infrastructure and threatening economic stability – causing approximately $320 billion in losses globally in 2024, continuing the trend of annual losses exceeding $100 billion.5 Geopolitical instability and competition for critical resources further heighten uncertainty, while high public debt is constraining governments’ ability to respond effectively. Together, these forces are reshaping the global economy and underscoring the need for resilience, adaptability and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to mobilize resources, innovation and policy for long-term stability.1 Global economic shifts and emerging market vulnerabilities demand resilience through a system-wide approach. Emerging markets are among the most affected by today’s global shifts. Their exposure to trade and climate risks, among others, makes them particularly vulnerable to the current economic landscape6,7,8 This concern was underscored during a Resilience Consortium leaders’ convening in 2025, when a chief executive officer observed: “Resilience is particularly critical in emerging markets, where disruption to agriculture, water supply and infrastructure is more pronounced.” Yet despite growing challenges, emerging markets remain vital drivers of global growth, fuelled by productivity gains, automation and the diffusion of innovation. Investment constraints further compound the challenge. In 2023, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing economies fell by 7% to $867 billion and remained flat throughout 2024 for the Global South.9 This stagnation has widened financial gaps and heightened economic fragility, underscoring the critical role of private capital in supporting investment, job creation and growth.10 The infrastructure investment shortfall is particularly severe: by 2030, the gap between infrastructure needs and expected spending in emerging markets is projected to reach $15 trillion,11 compounded by a record-high external debt service obligation of $400 billion in 2024.12 Nevertheless, emerging markets remain a cornerstone of global economic growth, accounting for nearly 60% of global gross domestic product (GDP).13 Demographic trends reinforce this potential: Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, is the only region with a growing working-age population – approximately 720 million people in 2024, projected to nearly double to 1.3 billion by 2050. This demographic dividend represents a powerful driver of economic expansion, innovation and productivity.14,15 Addressing vulnerabilities while unlocking these opportunities has the potential to improve living standards, create jobs and drive innovation.1.1 Emerging markets: unique challenges and growth opportunities Resilient Firms and Economies 5

Resilient Firms and Economies 2025