Comparing the two- and 10-year time frames reveals a deteriorating global risks landscape. Thirty-three of the 34 global risks increase in severity score over the longer-term, reflecting respondents’ concerns about the heightened frequency or intensity of these risks over the course of the 10-year horizon (Figure 2.1). Environmental and technological risks are among those expected to deteriorate the most in severity over this period and dominate the longer-term global risks landscape. Nearly all environmental risks are included in the top 10 rankings for the decade ahead (Figure 2.2). Extreme weather events are anticipated to become even more severe, as the top ranked risk over the next decade. Mirroring last year’s results, the perceived severity of Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse worsens the most of all risks, increasing by a full two Likert points, rising from #20 in the short-term to 3rd place. Critical change to Earth systems (#2) and Natural resource shortages (#4) are also among those perceived to materially deteriorate, contributing to their entrance into the top 10 ranking of risks over the next 10 years, while the related risk of Involuntary migration rises one place to #7 over the next decade. Pollution remains in 10th place. In contrast, Non-weather related natural disasters (#33) falls close to the bottom of rankings over both time horizons, likely reflecting the nature of such a tail risk and the often geographically isolated nature of these events. Global risks ranked by severity over the long term (10 years) FIGURE 2.2 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024."Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 10-year period." 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Adverse outcomes of AI technologies Involuntary migration Cyber insecurity Societal polarization Pollution 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Extreme weather events Critical change to Earth systems Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Natural resource shortages Misinformation and disinformation Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological These results highlight divergent perceptions around the comparative urgency of environmental risks. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (#20 in the two-year time frame) and Critical change to Earth systems (#11 in the two-year time frame) feature in the longer-term rankings for all stakeholder groups (Figure 2.3). However, it appears that younger respondents prioritize these risks as a more urgent concern, ranking them higher in the two-year period compared to other age groups (Chapter 1, Figure 1.6). Private-sector respondents, unlike those from civil society or government, feel that most environmental risks will materialize over a longer time frame (Figures 1.5 and 2.3). This dissonance in perceptions among key decision-makers could mean the time to act may soon pass, without sufficient progress made (Chapter 2.3: A 3°C world). Concerns around the possible implications of recent technological developments are also clearly evident. Adverse outcomes of AI technologies is anticipated to experience one of the largest deteriorations in severity. It rapidly rises from #29 over the two-year period to #6 over the 10-year period, likely reflecting the possible systemic or even existential nature of related risks as AI penetrates economic, social and political systems (Chapter 2.4: AI in charge). Despite worsening severity scores over this time frame, the most prominent technological risks in the short term, Misinformation and disinformation and Cyber insecurity, drop in ranking but remain in the top 10 over the longer-term, at 5th and 8th place, respectively. The related risk of Societal polarization also drops from 3rd place in the short term to 9th place over the longer-term horizon. Despite a small increase in perceived severity, the societal risk of Lack of economic opportunity falls from #6 over two years to #11 in the global rankings; however, it makes the top 10 rankings for both civil society and academia respondents over the longer-term horizon (Figure 2.3). The divergence from perceptions of the public sector – which do not rank this risk in the top 10 – coupled with the long-term, cumulative effects of a low-opportunity world on the next generation make this a risk to Global Risks Report 2024 38

The Global Risks Report 2024