The Global Risks Report 2024

Global Risks 2034: Over the limit2 This chapter focuses on the longer-term horizon, highlighting risks that may become the most severe over the next decade. While the short-term risks landscape described in Chapter 1 may, if not addressed, contribute to these negative, longer-term outcomes, attention, planning and action today can still set us on a markedly more positive trajectory. The world in 2034 2.1 Short-term severity (2 years)Long-term severity (10 years) 3456 2117 7 3 4 5 6Visible area Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Adverse outcomes of AI technologies Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Censorship and surveillance Chronic health conditions Infectious diseases Disruptions to critical infrastructure Biological, chemical or nuclear hazards Concentration of strategic resources Critical change to Earth systems Cyber insecurity Extreme weather events Illicit economic activity violence Involuntary migration Natural resource shortages Non-weather related natural disasters Pollution Labour shortages Technological power concentration T errorist attacks Unemployment Adverse outcomes of AI technologies Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Censorship and surveillance Chronic health conditions Infectious diseases Disruptions to critical infrastructure Biological, chemical or nuclear hazards Concentration of strategic resources Critical change to Earth systems Cyber insecurity Economic downturn Erosion of human rights Debt Extreme weather events Illicit economic activity Lack of economic opportunity Inflation Interstate armed conflict Geoeconomic confrontation Intrastate violence Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain Involuntary migration Misinformation and disinformation Natural resource shortages Non-weather related natural disasters Pollution Societal polarization Labour shortages Technological power concentration T errorist attacks UnemploymentDeteriorating risks Asset bubble bursts Asset bubble bursts Insufficient public infrastructure and servicesRelative severity of risks over a 2 and 10-year period FIGURE 2.1 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024.NoteSeverity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale [1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity].The next decade will usher in a period of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit. GRPS respondents are far less optimistic about the outlook for the world over the longer term than the short term. As noted in Chapter 1, nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents to the GRPS predict a turbulent or stormy outlook, with upheavals and an elevated risk of global catastrophes at best (Chapter 1, Figure 1.1). Global Risks Report 2024 37