The Global Risks Report 2024

Structural forces 2.2 Across several spheres – geostrategic, technological, climatic and demographic – we are transitioning to a new underlying set of conditions and parameters. These shifts form the backdrop to the global risks that will play out over the next decade. This year, the Global Risks Report introduces the concept of structural forces to our analysis of global risks over the next decade. 3 We define these as the long-term shift in the arrangement of, and relation between, the systemic elements of the global landscape. These forces have the potential to materially impact the speed, spread or scope of global risks, and will be influenced in turn by each other.There are four structural forces that are the most materially influential to the global risks landscape. These are summarized in Box 2.1 4 and include: technological acceleration; geostrategic shifts; climate change; and demographic bifurcation. While all four forces have global ramifications, some, such as the changing climate, are more multi-directional in their development, which could allow for several potential futures. Similarly, while all represent longer-term shifts to the structural landscape, some have the potential to manifest more quickly due to underlying variables. Geostrategic shifts, for example, may lead to a lack of alignment between powers, while technological acceleration can foster new discoveries that transform systems rapidly. Structural forces BOX 2.1 Technological acceleration relates to development pathways of emerging technologies. A subset of key technologies, including general-purpose AI, is anticipated to experience significant, accelerated development over the next 10 years. Given the sheer scope of frontier development and general-purpose applications, multiple trajectories may arise. Quantum computing, for example, could allow compute power to leapfrog and, alongside anticipated benefits, rapidly give rise to novel global risks. Technological experimentation, such as brain-computer interfaces, could blur the boundaries between technology and humanity, to unknown effects.Climate change encompasses the range of possible trajectories of global warming and consequences to Earth systems. Climate change is characterized as a systemic shift in this year’s analysis because the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, specified in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is anticipated to be crossed by the early to mid-2030s. However, global warming pathways will still be influenced by the speed at which decarbonization takes place, and deployment of climate solutions.Degradation of environmental systems could also accelerate estimated trajectories, to the extent that they “naturally” contribute to global warming and related effects (such as the reversal of carbon sinks). Geostrategic shifts refers to evolving sources and concentration of geopolitical power. This, in turn, influences the alignment of the geopolitical order, impacting related alliances and dynamics, as well as the offensive and defensive projection of soft and hard power over the next decade. Economic power is becoming more diffuse, for instance, reflecting changes in currency dependencies, sources of energy, available capital and size of consumer markets. Concentrations of economic and military power are also highly related to technological and resource assets. While alternate futures are possible, an array of powers will likely assert their dominance on the global stage in a multipolar world. Demographic bifurcation refers to changes in the size, growth and structure of populations around the world. The demographic divide is widening. Polarizing growth at the top and bottom end of population pyramids, and between countries and regions, will have material implications for related socioeconomic and political systems. Asia continues to dominate in terms of absolute population growth. Most countries will continue to grapple with an ageing population, combining a long-term rise in life expectancy with declining fertility rates. In contrast, Africa faces a radically different policy challenge: by 2030, young Africans are expected to constitute 42% of global youth. Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024.Note Refer to Appendix A: Definitions and Global Risks List for further detail. Global Risks Report 2024 40