As these structural forces interact, we consider four emerging global risks and how they may evolve over the next decade: –Earth systems : all stakeholder groups agree that Critical change to Earth systems (#2) poses one of the most severe risks faced over the next decade. Could anthropogenic (in)action and climate change push select Earth systems past the tipping point, catapulting towards a 3°C world to which we cannot adapt? –AI technologies : a number of Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (#6) are anticipated to rapidly rise over the next decade. Could powerful frontier technologies destabilize global economic and security dynamics and put tech – and its concentrated owners – in charge? –Human development : featuring as a top risk over the two-year period and just out of the top 10 over the next decade, Lack of economic opportunity (#11) is a persistent but lower priority risk for global decision-makers over the longer-term horizon. Could closing developmental pathways leave vulnerable populations and countries, and the next generation, with little hope for a brighter future? –Organized crime : Illicit economic activity (#31) is one of the lowest-ranked risks in the global risks network, but the convergence of several top-ranked risks could turn an under-the-radar chronic risk into a pressing crisis. Will transnational crime networks subsume fragile states and vulnerable populations, capitalizing on highly disruptive technologies and weakened state capacity? The futures highlighted in each of the following sections is only one of a multiplicity of possibilities, and we highlight opportunities to shape a more positive path forward by acting today. Elizabeth Lies, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 41

The Global Risks Report 2024