The Global Risks Report 2024

A 3°C world 2.3 – Thr esholds for large-scale and self-perpetuating changes to planetary systems are likely to be exceeded within the next decade. – The pace and scale of climate-change adaptation ef forts are already falling short, with societies increasingly exposed to environmental impacts to which they may be unable to adapt, fueling displacement and migration. – Nascent mitigation technologies, while attractive in some r espects, could have unintended environmental and social consequences, with implications for legal liabilities, geopolitical dynamics and the climate agenda. Severity score: Critical change to Earth systems FIGURE 2.4 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024. 10-year rank: 2ndLong-term, potentially irreversible and self-perpetuating changes to critical planetary systems, as a result of breaching a critical threshold or ‘tipping point’, at a regional or global level, that have abrupt and severe impacts on planet health or human welfare. Includes, but is not limited to: sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets; carbon release from thawing permafrost; and disruption of ocean or atmospheric currents. 10-year average: 5.9 7 High Low 6 5 4 3 2 1Severity Proportion of respondents NoteSeverity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale[1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity]. The percentages in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures havebeen rounded up/down.2 years 2%2% 3%10 years10% 9% 18% 21% 20% 14% 6% 48% 24% 13% 8% Current trajectories of global warming mean that at least one “climate tipping point”5 (or the threshold at which long-term, potentially irreversible and self-perpetuating change to a planetary system occurs) could be passed within the next 10 years. 6 Under nearly all Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, the 1.5°C threshold will be crossed in the early 2030s. 7 Based on the latest research, at least four systems are considered likely to tip at 1.5°C (Figure 2.5): low-latitude coral reefs die-off (high confidence), collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets (high confidence), and abrupt thawing of permafrost (medium confidence). 8 There is also new evidence to suggest that the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation could additionally be placed at risk at 1.5°C, while the boreal forest, mangroves and seagrass meadows will start to become vulnerable. 9 With Critical change to Earth systems a new entrant to the global risks list this year, all stakeholder groups agreed that it poses one of the most severe risks faced over the next decade (Figure 2.3). While these changes emerge comparatively silently, with their effects building over the long term, impacts are felt on a systemic level, intensifying impacts to food, water and health security. Yet as the need for climate solutions become more urgent, the risk of technology-induced tipping points – such as from geoengineering – will also grow. Breached thresholds It remains challenging to define climate tipping points and assess their likelihood. However, the latest research increasingly suggests that long-term changes to planetary systems will be triggered over the next decade, possibly without the world realizing that the point of no return – the point of intervention - has passed. Importantly, most of the IPCC scenarios allow for temperature overshoot – however, the breaching of critical thresholds will trigger long-lasting and fundamental changes, 10 with a fresh set of climate and environmental conditions that could rewrite our collective understanding of the risks posed by climate change. While recent research suggests that the trajectory of 1.5°C may be locked in regardless of action Global Risks Report 2024 42