The Global Risks Report 2024

The next global shock? BOX 2.2 Collapse of the AMOC Research suggests that the tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is “possible” at 1.4°C, but only “likely” at 4.0°C. 16 However, a profound shift at much lower temperatures cannot be ruled out.17 While timescales and temperature thresholds are heavily debated among the scientific community, there is some evidence to suggest that the circulation of this current is at its weakest point in over 1,000 years, and may be closer than anticipated to a critical transition. 18 A collapse of this system would wholly reorganize ocean circulation, resulting in global and regional cooling, and a redistribution of heat, rainfall and sea ice. Sea levels and agricultural, marine and terrestrial systems would be impacted, and global food security compromised. 19 occurred: tipping points in our planet’s history have led to alternative stable states to which life has adapted over time. 20 Rather, the risk is posed to socioeconomic structures: is the alternate state one to which we as human societies can adapt? Climate tipping points could result in a socio- environmental crisis, intensifying current risks. GRPS respondents foresee a highly related cluster of environmental risks, with bilateral connections to Critical change to Earth systems. This includes Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, Extreme weather events and Pollution, with strong potential to lead to Natural resource shortages (Figure 2.6). Alongside environmental impacts, several GRPS respondents also highlight possible socioeconomic implications, including Involuntary migration, Chronic health conditions, Infectious diseases and Economic downturn. Indeed, as explored in last year’s Global Risks Report (Chapter 2.2: Natural ecosystems), this nexus of socioenvironmental risks have the potential to accelerate climate change, through the release of emissions, and amplify related impacts, threatening climate-vulnerable populations. The collective ability to adapt to these impacts may be overwhelmed by several factors. Climate tipping points FIGURE 2.6 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024.Edges Relative influence High LowMediumRisk influenceNodes High LowMedium Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal TechnologicalReferenceRisk interconnections: Critical change to Earth systems Infectious diseasesInvoluntary migration PollutionBiodiversity loss and ecosystem collapseCritical change to Earth systems Extreme weather events Chronic health conditionsNatural resource shortages Economic downturn Global Risks Report 2024 44