The Global Risks Report 2024

First, adaptation efforts are unlikely to radically progress over the next decade, particularly in the most climate-vulnerable economies. Despite persistent and extreme weather impacts, Failure of climate-change adaptation was a top-five risk in only six countries for the two-year time frame (compared to 16 in 2023). Figure 2.7 21 presents a regional comparison of the latest Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) results, highlighting a number of climate-vulnerable markets across developing regions (shaded orange), 22 but where a failure to adapt to climate change is not a relatively high concern for some. This likely reflects far more pressing challenges, including state fragility, poverty and conflict – such as in Yemen and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – but could hinder climate-adaptive action from being undertaken, in advance of these impacts intensifying further.Indeed, adaptation efforts in developing countries could be constrained by finances, paired with the sheer scope of infrastructure investment needs over the next decade (Figure 2.8). 23 As the fragility of highly-exposed, low-resilience states rises, internal conflicts and border clashes over resources could become more common (Chapter 1.4: Rise in conflict), 24 and many countries could increasingly be seen as too high risk to operate or invest in (Chapter 2.5: End of development?), eroding adaptive capacities further. Related socioeconomic tipping points – such as land abandonment or the exit of investment and insurance in high-risk regions – could therefore occur even before planetary tipping points are demonstrably breached. 25 Advanced economies will not be insulated from some of these effects. For example, in Australia nearly 521,000 homes are predicted to be uninsurable by 2030 due to the risks of extreme weather. 26 “Which five risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?” 1st 10th20th30th36th Risk rankingKyrgyzstan Armenia Kazakhstan Mongolia South Korea Japan New ZealandBahamasSwedenItaly Germany PeruEcuador BrazilPoland Ukraine Bulgaria EstoniaSwitzerland Luxembourg HondurasColombia El Salvador VenezuelaBolivia Canada United StatesYemen India Lesotho United Republic of TanzaniaChad Sierra LeoneKenya ZimbabweNigeriaMali MalawiPakistan Nepal BangladeshThailandIndonesiaIraqEgyptAlgeriaParaguay SenegalRwandaViet NamPhilippines Ghana CameroonBenin Democratic Republic of the CongoAngolaLao PDRAustraliaGeorgia Uzbekistan Central Asia Eastern Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and Northern Africa Northern America Oceania South-eastern Asia Southern Asia Sub-Saharan AfricaLao PDR 0 Low High 50 25 75 100Global adaption scoreTop 10Adaptation readiness FIGURE 2.7 Source ND-Gain Country Index; World Economic ForumExecutive Opinion Survey 2023.NoteThe colour of the data points reflects the ND-GAIN Country Index (2021), which summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience. A higher score (blue) indicates a higher degree of overall readiness. The x-axis displays the comparative ranking of Failure to adapt to climate change in national risk perceptions, as captured by the EOS survey. Global Risks Report 2024 45