The next global shock? BOX 2.8 Post-SDGs As 2030 approaches, demonstrable erosion in critical pillars of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) could set the tone for the next decade, as international support for sustainable development pathways narrow. In light of domestic challenges and declining international cooperation, there is a risk of an accompanying rise in deprivation. The distribution of aid could become primarily driven by narrow security interests, rather than broader, traditional development imperatives, resulting in selective efforts to create good for a few, rather than good for all. For example, aid financing could be diverted from nature restoration or education to the building of dual-use infrastructure such as ports. Amid slowing growth, investment from China could dry up further, resulting in cancellations and delays of critical infrastructure projects, destabilizing low- and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. 98 Stranded people Individual pathways to economic prosperity could also diverge because of these twin economic transitions, perpetuating technological, educational and societal divides. In the absence of effective policies encouraging reskilling alongside labour and social mobility, access to income opportunities will narrow for a widening segment of the global population, creating pockets of unemployment and economic distress that impact blue- and white-collar workers alike. This disruption is imminent but may catch the workforce by surprise. For example, four in 10 executives believe AI will lead to net job losses this year – compared to only one in 10 employees. 99 EOS results point to a potential skills gap within several countries, suggesting that domestic workers will face barriers to matching job demand within the next two years. Respondents in numerous countries selected both Unemployment and Labour shortages in their top 10 rankings (Figure 2.20). This includes a range of high-, upper-middle, and lower-middle income countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye, South Africa, Australia, Brazil and Argentina. The latest estimates suggest that three in five workers will require training before 2027. However, barriers of socioeconomic class and age may hinder economic mobility, entrenching existing inequalities. For example, despite AI-driven advances in education, not all workers – between and within countries – will have access to adequate reskilling opportunities. 100 Those with the economic resources to adapt to new industries will have a better chance at maintaining economic stability and capture higher wages. Those without access to quality retraining will be forced into less stable or secure means of employment. Additionally, the automation of entry level functions could create a higher educational barrier to entry into the workforce, magnifying challenges of social mobility. Over the longer term, the jobs of higher-skilled, more expensive workers may also come under threat from both machine intelligence and machine power, with barriers arising due to skills obsolescence and atrophy, as well as advancements in technology. Feliphe Schiarolli, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 64

The Global Risks Report 2024