The Global Risks Report 2024

The next global shock? BOX 2.9 Green lash meets tech lash Deepening frustration with economic conditions will drive societal divisions, as individuals demand better opportunities, income equality and improved living standards. The anti-tech and anti-sustainability backlash will be fueled by workers threatened by these two transitions. Related strikes and riots could grow, disrupting business continuity on a regular basis and disrupting essential infrastructure, from financial institutions to public services and transport. Both white- and blue-collar displacement could feature heavily in political platforms during election cycles, interacting to polarize electorates in some cases or align historically unlikely groupings in others. This could be a dynamic to watch in upcoming elections in both the United States and United Kingdom, where trade unions have historically represented key parts of voting coalitions, and whose electoral power could ultimately slow the rollout of the twin economic transitions. If adequate social protection systems are not in place, displaced workers who struggle to re-enter the workforce could face higher rates of poverty, hunger and homelessness, particularly in the near term if costs and inflation remain higher for longer. Access to basic necessities, including healthcare and housing, could become restricted. In the absence of supported pathways to safe and secure livelihoods, more individuals could also be pushed into crime, militarization or radicalization (Chapter 2.6: Crime wave). Forced economic displacement could become more common, with individuals migrating in search of better economic opportunity and, possibly, social assistance – yet even this may be a pathway that some individuals cannot afford. While many of these consequences may be felt most acutely in developing economies, with less fiscal space to ease the transition for individuals, these risks remain a concern in advanced economies, too. For example, workers from “dirty” sectors could become stranded in fossil fuel-dependent local economies, with few other opportunities available. Displaced older workers will exacerbate the growing strain on social systems and healthcare, creating a different but related livelihood crisis: growing retirement insecurity. Anticipated job disruption could also enable knowledge, technology, income and wealth to become even more concentrated, perpetuating cycles of poverty. An individual born into a less privileged background is likely to face formidable and potentially higher barriers to reaching their full potential, undermining notions of meritocracy and fairness that underpin stable and inclusive societies. Delia Giandeini, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 65