The Global Risks Report 2024

Vulnerable markets Over the coming decade, parallel economies (or black markets)105 are likely to proliferate, creating lucrative revenue streams and recruitment pools for organized crime networks, as the costs of crime spread more widely to citizens. Resource stress, conflict and economic hardship will interact to drive more pervasive demand for smuggling as well as vulnerability to criminal activities. 106 Demand for illegal smuggling of drugs, weapons, resources, cash, pharmaceuticals and people will increase in tandem with geopolitical, economic and environmental developments. Expanded sanctions regimes (Chapter 1.4: Rise in conflict), offensive geoeconomic policies, climate-related involuntary migration, and even anticipated price volatility in the licit economy – in food, fuel, health or critical minerals – could all drive an expansion in illegal smuggling in new geographic markets or in new products. 107 For example, ongoing market concentration in the tech value chain means that technology-related smuggling, including in semiconductors, is likely to continue to expand (Chapter 2.4: AI in charge). 108 Illegal mining of critical resources will be a major source of instability across multiple regions, from South-East Asia to Latin America, driving violence, corruption, the displacement of Indigenous populations and environmental destruction. 109 As scarcity drives up resource value, environmental crimes such as illegal logging could drive forced labour and human rights abuses, and accelerate broader environmental impacts in turn. 110 Similarly, the fisheries sector could increasingly attract the interest of organized crime groups. Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing is a revenue stream that can be engaged in with relative impunity, with jurisdictional challenges hampering enforcement. The practice also complements other forms of marine trafficking, including drugs and people. 111 At the same time, socioeconomic vulnerabilities arising from these same trends will heighten exposure to criminal networks. Conflict- or climate-related migration will likely drive exploitation by criminal actors engaging in, for example, child labour and cyber slavery. 112 Additionally, social disintegration, urban segregation, poverty and economic inequalities are all well-known Organized crime FIGURE 2.26 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Edges Relative influence High LowMediumRisk influenceNodes High LowMedium Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal TechnologicalReferenceRisk interconnections: Illicit economic activity and Cyber insecurity Censorship and surveillance Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Cyber insecurity Adverse outcomesof AI technologiesMisinformation and disinformation Terrorist attacks Disruptions tocritical infrastructure Disruptions to a systemically important supply chainCensorship and surveillance Adverse outcomes offrontier technologies Cyber insecurity Adverse outcomesof AI technologiesMisinformation and disinformation Technological powerconcentrationIntrastate violence Lack of economic opportunity Geoeconomic confrontation UnemploymentDebtInflation Illicit economic activityInvoluntary migration Concentration of strategic resources Economic downturnTechnological powerconcentration Lack of economic opportunitySocietalpolarizationSocietalpolarization Global Risks Report 2024 70