The Global Risks Report 2024

potential drivers of criminal activity and could lead more people towards criminal activity.113 Unemployment is seen to be the strongest driver of Illicit economic activity (selected by more than 40% of GRPS respondents). If poverty and unemployment become chronic concerns in countries vulnerable to livelihood crises (Chapter 2.5: End of development?), crime may become the predominant source of income and the only way to access necessities for some communities. Cyber vulnerabilities In parallel, rapid integration of advanced technologies are exposing a broader subset of the global population to potential digital and physical exploitation. Organized crime networks will increasingly adopt blended business models utilizing new technologies to diversify illicit funding and fragment the physical presence of organized crime. This will pose significant risks to individuals and legal businesses – and has the potential to lead to violence that challenges the power of governments and threatens the territorial control of states. 114 New tools and capabilities will open new markets for criminal networks, with cybercrime offering an increasingly low-risk and low-cost revenue stream for organized crime. 115 Phishing attacks, for example, can now be easily and accurately translated into minority languages using generative AI. Over the coming years, more sophisticated cyber defenses will shift targets towards less digitally literate individuals or less secure infrastructure and systems. Already prevalent in Latin America, cybercrime will continue to spread to parts of Asia and West and Southern Africa, as affluency grows and internet connectivity brings large swathes of the global population online. 116 “Which five risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?” New Zealand United Arab Emirates Bahrain Jordan Oman Saudi Arabia Yemen Egypt Kuwait Qatar Iraq Iran Algeria Canada United States of America Democratic Republic of the Congo Angola South Africa Rwanda Benin Kenya Botswana Côte D'Ivoire Tanzania Mali Cameroon Pakistan Lao PDR Viet Nam Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Singapore Venezuela Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Guatemala Brazil Jamaica Serbia Bulgaria Belgium North Macedonia Hungary Italy Ukraine Latvia Türkiye United Kingdom Germany Sweden Portugal Czechia Lithuania Denmark Mongolia South Korea Japan Kazakhstan Tunisia Morocco Nigeria Top 10 Georgia Armenia Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Australia Bangladesh Nepal Sri Lanka India 1st 10th20th30th36th Risk rankingCentral Asia Eastern Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and Northern Africa Northern America Oceania South-eastern Asia Southern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 0 Low High 4 2 6 10Criminality score 8 National risk perceptions, by region: Cybercrime and cyber insecurity FIGURE 2.27 Source World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2023; Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2023.NoteThe colour of the data points reflects countries’ criminality scores, which are based on the Global Organized Crime Index 2023. The score consists of the average of 10 criminal markets and four criminal actor types. A higher score (red) indicates a greater degree of severity of its criminality conditions. The x-axis displays the comparative ranking of Cybercrime and cyber insecurity in national risk perceptions, as captured by the EOS survey. Global Risks Report 2024 71