The Global Risks Report 2024

Figure 2.27 outlines a growing concern around the risk of Cybercrime and cyber insecurity among business leaders in developing regions. It ranks among the top 10 risks over the next two years for markets already grappling with higher levels of criminality, such as Cameroon, Mali, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. The adoption of these digitally blended models, leveraging cyber and physical revenue streams, was seen by some experts consulted to potentially lead to a drop in violence if these activities supersede alternate forms of illicit revenue, such as drug trafficking. Notably, however, the destructive influence of cybercrime puts more civilians at risk than when concentrated between criminal actors in intergang warfare, in addition to being associated with other forms of physical violence, such as human trafficking. 117 Organized crime groups will also increasingly utilize technologies 118 to enable geographic expansion of their networks to strengthen strategic footholds of economic and political activity. Enabled by technology, crime networks can spread to exploit heightened demand, regulatory and enforcement gaps, and negative public perceptions of police and state legitimacy, with financing, suppliers, customers and violence originating in separate markets. 119 EOS results suggest that this may be an underappreciated risk among business perceptions, with more traditional forms of crime – including illicit trade and trafficking – anticipated to remain largely concentrated in Latin America and the Caribbean over the next two years (Figure 2.28). Of note are several economies, such as Nigeria, Kenya, Türkiye and Indonesia, that are already experiencing higher levels of criminality (shaded darker orange), despite Illicit economic activity not ranking as highly in risk perceptions. “Which five risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?” 1st 10th20th30th36th Risk rankingCentral Asia Eastern Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and Northern Africa Northern America Oceania South-eastern Asia Southern Asia Sub-Saharan AfricaTop 10 0 Low High 4 2 6 10Criminality score 8 Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Georgia Armenia Uzbekistan Mongolia South Korea Japan Bulgaria Malta Romania Ukraine Serbia Poland Türkiye Italy France Netherlands Iceland Sweden Paraguay Ecuador Mexico Peru Jamaica Colombia Honduras Bahamas Uruguay El Salvador Egypt Qatar Iran Iraq Tunisia Oman Yemen Algeria Morocco Saudi Arabia Bahrain Canada United States of America New Zealand Australia Indonesia Malaysia Lao PDR Viet Nam Philippines Singapore Thailand India Bangladesh Nepal Sri Lanka Pakistan Cameroon Benin Malawi South Africa Angola Tanzania Nigeria Sierra Leone Lesotho Chad Kenya Côte D'Ivoire Senegal RwandaNational risk perceptions, by region: Illicit economic activity FIGURE 2.28 Source World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2023;Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2023.NoteThe colour of the data points reflects countries’ criminality scores, which are based on the Global Organized Crime Index 2023. The score consists of the average of 10 criminal markets and four criminal actor types. A higher score (red) indicates a greater degree of severity of its criminality conditions. The x-axis displays the comparative ranking of Illicit economic activity in national risk perceptions, as captured by the EOS survey. Global Risks Report 2024 72