The Global Risks Report 2024

Emerging as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage Misinformation and disinformation to further widen societal and political divides (Chapter 1.3: False information). As close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies – including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States – over the next two years, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism. Beyond elections, perceptions of reality are likely to also become more polarized, infiltrating the public discourse on issues ranging from public health to social justice. However, as truth is undermined, the risk of domestic propaganda and censorship will also rise in turn. In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly empowered to control information based on what they determine to be “true”. Freedoms relating to the internet, press and access to wider sources of information that are already in decline risk descending into broader repression of information flows across a wider set of countries. Economic strains on low- and middle-income people – and countries – are set to grow The Cost-of-living crisis remains a major concern in the outlook for 2024 (Figure B). The economic risks of Inflation (#7) and Economic downturn (#9) are also notable new entrants to the top 10 risk rankings over the two-year period (Figure C). Although a “softer landing” appears to be prevailing for now, the near-term outlook remains highly uncertain. There are multiple sources of continued supply-side price pressures looming over the next two years, from El Niño conditions to the potential escalation of live conflicts. And if interest rates remain relatively high for longer, small- and medium-sized enterprises and heavily indebted countries will be particularly exposed to debt distress (Chapter 1.5: Economic uncertainty). Economic uncertainty will weigh heavily across most markets, but capital will be the costliest for the most vulnerable countries. Climate-vulnerable or conflict-prone countries stand to be increasingly locked out of much-needed digital and physical infrastructure, trade and green investments and related economic opportunities. As the adaptive capacities of these fragile states erodes further, related societal and environmental impacts are amplified. Similarly, the convergence of technological advances and geopolitical dynamics will likely create a new set of winners and losers across advanced and developing economies alike (Chapter 2.4: AI in charge). If commercial incentives and geopolitical imperatives, rather than public interest, remain the primary drivers of the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and other frontier technologies, the digital gap between high- and low-income countries will drive a stark disparity in the distribution of related benefits – and risks. Vulnerable countries and communities would be left further behind, digitally isolated from turbocharged AI breakthroughs impacting economic productivity, finance, climate, education and healthcare, as well as related job creation. Global risks ranked by severity over the short and long term FIGURE C Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024."Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period." 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 2 years 10 years Extreme weather events Critical change to Earth systems Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Natural resource shortages Misinformation and disinformation Adverse outcomes of AI technologies Involuntary migration Cyber insecurity Societal polarization Pollution 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Misinformation and disinformation Extreme weather events Societal polarization Cyber insecurity Interstate armed conflict Lack of economic opportunity Inflation Involuntary migration Economic downturn Pollution Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Global Risks Report 2024 8